We cashed another couple of winners on Wednesday to push our record to 12-7 since right before the All Star Break. I am back here on Friday with two more winning MLB Prop Picks from Bovada sportsbook.
Daniel Murphy O/U 2 ½ runs, hits and RBI's
Daniel Murphy is making a case to be the MVP in the National League this season. That seems funny to say when you think back to March and everyone was predicting an MVP –level season for Bryce Harper. However, it's been Murphy leading the Nationals' offense, and he has been crushing the ball all season in his first season in Washington.
Now he gets a matchup that is even more intriguing because of his MLB Odds and the pitcher he is facing. Jeff Samardzija is on the hill for the Giants in this one and left-handers have crushed him all season. Lefties own a .358 wOBA and a 38.6 fly ball rate against the Giants' overpaid pitcher.
However, Murphy's play against righties is what makes this a great play. We cashed on Murphy a few weeks ago in a similar situation, but this time, around we have excellent betting odds value at +120 for the over. Murphy has a .371 average against right-handers this season. He adds a .438 wOBA and a .373 BABIP as well against righties.
On top of his great stats against righties and Samardzija's poor showing against lefties, Murphy has dominated the Giants' pitcher in their previous matchups. Murphy is 6-for-12 in his career against Samardzija with a double, triple, home run and four RBI's. Take this great value from Bovada and add it to your MLB Picks.
Free My Pick: OVER +120
Best Line Offered: at Bovada
Jean Segura O/U 2 ½ runs, hits and RBI's
This is one that I mentioned that I liked on the Odds Couple show and the betting odds did not disappoint when they came out earlier this afternoon. At +130 for the over on the same prop as Murphy, Segura also shows promise as a winnable play tonight in his matchup against Chase Anderson.
Anderson has pitched well recently, throwing quality starts in his last two outings. However, his overall play cannot be taken too far into account when talking about individual matchups. Anderson and Segura will face off against one another at least twice and potentially even three times tonight. With that in mind, it only takes one good at bat with runners on base to cash a prop like this.
Segura posts a .314 average against righties this season with a .345 BABIP as well. Segura has always hit righties better than lefties and with those solid righty-righty splits; it makes him a great play tonight. Segura has a .352 wOBA and seven of his nine homers off righties as well.
Anderson may have been pitching better, but it has been mostly against lefties. Anderson is another player who has way better reverse splits, with lefties owning a .273 wOBA against him, while righties are crushing the ball at a .421 wOBA over 248 hitters faced this season.
Anderson has also allowed 12 homers to right-handers this season and with lefties posting a .186 average, while righties have a .330 against him, it's hard to see him getting Segura out at all tonight. All Segura needs tonight is collect two hits and to either come around to score or knock someone in with one of those hits.
My Pick: OVER 2½ +130
Best Line Offered: at Bovada
Season Record: (12-7 +3.94 units)