Handicapping professional Ross Benjamin shares some of his personal beliefs pertaining to early season betting. Join us in reading this article which can be essential when evaluating MLB betting odds in April.
Comparing Caution to Hesitancy
There's a fine line between caution and hesitancy. I've always been a proponent of airing on the side of caution when it relates to making MLB predictions in April. Nevertheless, being blatantly hesitant when making those past decisions have more times than not cost me a winning wager. Conversely, it provided me with a valuable lesson during the infant stages of my sports betting experiences.
If a money line or total during the first month of the season looks too good to be true, it usually is. Betting impulsively, and not proceeding with caution when these circumstances arise can result in a huge dent to your MLB betting bankroll. If that indeed occurs, it can result in spending the first couple of months of a season attempting to overcome a substantial deficit.
Remember, in this modern era of MLB free agency, team rosters can sometimes change dramatically from year to year. Especially since there's no salary cap in MLB compared to the NFL or NHL for example. Thus, there's a higher likelihood of teams reversing their fortunes from the prior season, whether it be in a negative or positive manner.
The flip side of this equation is being exceedingly hesitant in pulling the trigger on a wager. If you're cognizant of what I've already discussed regarding calculated caution, then you'll be able to avoid hesitancy. The old saying of “he who hesitates is lost” can certainly apply when being overly cautious in this regard. The only thing worse in sports betting than carelessness is being afraid to lose. I know it will sound like an oxymoron, but being afraid to lose a bet only prevents you from winning one. If you have a prodigious fear of losing, then you probably shouldn't be betting at all. They call it sports gambling for a reason, and if the possibility of a reasonably sized loss is potentially crippling to an individual's finances, then unequivocally that person shouldn't be partaking in the activity.
Starting Pitchers Past Performances in April
One of the many MLB handicapping factors I lean on during the month of April pertains to starting pitchers. If you're willing to take the time to do research, finding starting pitchers past performances during the month of April are readily accessible on several MLB portals. I've found that doing so has been quite beneficial, and provides an early added edge when making a pick. The reason for doing so is quite simple. Some pitchers are extremely effective in their April starts, while others struggle mightily. I've had a good deal of success in isolating a handful of starting pitchers that are on both sides of that fence. With a little bit of work, you can do the same.
Early MLB Profitable Betting System
How many times have you heard that pitchers are well ahead of hitters coming out of spring training? There's certainly credence that old baseball adage. Although the statistics over the years are supportive of such, it's been far from overwhelming in those regards. Nevertheless, illustrated below is an MLB betting system which directly corresponds to this theory and one you should keep a keen eye out for.
Any road team that allowed 1 run or less in each of their previous 2 games, facing an opponent that's coming off being shutout during its last 2 games, resulted in those road teams going a very profitable 32-14 (69.6%) against the money line since 1997. Granted, those precise betting parameters have transpired only 46 times over the past 20 seasons. However, this exact situation is very straightforward, and in turn easy to identify. What's even more attractive, a consensus of past MLB betting odds indicates those 46 road teams had an average money line price of +111.2.