On today’s Weekend Preview edition of SportsBIT, Teddy and Pauly dish the goods on what savvy Vegas professionals are thinking when it comes to this series finale.
Between now and tip-off for Game 7 of the NBA Finals, you can expect to see, hear and read lots of of hype from non-bettors about what to expect in the final game of the NBA season.Savvy bettors will tune out much of the ‘mainstream' analysis, and focus in on the key handicapping factors for this Game 7 battle on Father's Day.
The betting markets made a significant adjustment towards Cleveland on the road, compared to the first three home games of the series; all games where Golden State opened at least two points higher (-7) than the Game 7 pointspread (-5). We've even seen some GSW -4.5's pop up; a clear indicator that the sharp early money is riding the Cavs one more time, just like they've done in each of the past two games.
Pauly and Teddy always conduct a brief history lesson in unique betting situations like this one – understanding what has happened in the past and why is a key element of any handicapping process. They go back through the history of NBA Finals Game 7's since the last road team won in SU fashion (1978 when the Bullets rallied to beat the Sonics). The last five NBA Finals Game 7's have all been tight, competitive contests decided by seven points or less. Four of the five – the most recent four – were low scoring games that stayed well Under the total.
What about LeBron and Steph when it comes to big games like this one? LeBron's got a great Game 7 track record: 3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS in Playoff Game 7's dating back to his first tenure with the Cavs. The Warriors have only played one previous Game 7 during their deep playoff runs over the past two seasons, but it came very recently – in the Oklahoma City series for the Western Conference Title just a few weeks ago. The Thunder won and covered Game 7 at home in the final seconds, but it wasn't pretty and it's wasn't easy.
Who can Steve Kerr count on in Game 7 and what adjustments can he make? Can Golden State do anything without a healthy Andrew Bogut to shore up their rebounding (-10 in Game 6) or their defense (Cavs shot 60% from two pint range in Game 6, after hitting 58% from two point range in Game 5)? Pauly and Teddy deliver the type of hard-hitting, fact based analysis that you expect on this loaded Weekend Preview edition of SportsBIT. Check it out now!