Solid Pitching Duel Benefits Under For Giants vs. Red Sox MLB Pick

Rick Porcello

Tuesday, July 19, 2016 2:03 PM GMT

Our MLB handicapper decides it's ok to follow Johnny Q. Public in the initial line action of this marquee matchup, as the Giants visit the Red Sox at Fenway Park on Tuesday night.

San Francisco Giants vs Boston Red Sox
The team with the best record in baseball travels to historic Fenway Park on Tuesday night as the Boston Red Sox (51-39) looks to keep up with a very tight AL East race log jammed with 3 teams at the top of the standings. The San Francisco Giants (57-36) come into this game with a 5.5 lead division in the NL West and losers of three straight. Luckily for them, the Dodgers have also dropped their last two so they haven't lost much ground in the division. In this game, the MLB odds have hometown Red Sox are -160 money line favorites at BetOnline, with the O/U total currently sitting at 10.5 runs and shaded towards the Under at books, like at Pinnacle.

Jake Peavy takes the mound for the San Francisco Giants in this game as he continues to struggle with dropping velocity on his 15th major league season. His fastball is currently sitting at just 88.8 mph, and he has thrown it the least amount in his career at 45.3% of all pitches. Taking its place this year is a cutter that sits around 85 mph and slightly more dependence on the curveball and changeup. Peavy's results this year are trending to be the worst in his career but have a little bit of bad luck baked into them as well. On the year, Peavy has put up a 5.09 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 72/29 K/BB rate, and .282 batting average against. However, his fielding independent ERA (FIP) sits at just 4.00. That's not superb, but a far cry from the 5+ ERA he has been tagged with so far this year.

Peavy has been especially unlucky away from home this year, where he carries a 6.64 ERA on the road – compared to 3.98 at home. This ERA difference exists in spite of holding opponents to a lower batting average on the road than at home, .263 versus .297, respectively. The difference, of course, is dingers, which will be washed out when you look at fielding independent statistics. Peavy has also struggled against left-handers this year who are batting a robust .303 off of the righty pitcher.

On the other side of the 'luck department' is Rick Porcello, who has enjoyed some of the best runs support in the major leagues at 6.44 runs per game. Add that to a 3.66 ERA and you get an 11-2 record on paper and a 13-5 record SU for sports bettors. Other stats include a 1.17 WHIP, 97/21 K/BB rate, and .253 batting average against. On the other side of the spectrum from Peavy, Porcello has been had against left-handers all year as they are batting just .236 against the right-hander. Porcello has also been nails at Fenway Park this year, putting up a 3.32 ERA and only giving up 5 home runs. I don't know if this is sustainable, though, as run support really has nothing to do with the pitcher… I would hope in the American League at least.

The line moves in this game seem to agree with my initial analysis, as Porcello is a solid starter at home, yet Peavy has been bitten with bad luck on the year with his ERA. Therefore, there is some significant value to be had on the Under in this game. The Under has already shifted to 10 runs at Heritage, with -105 juice. At this point, I agree with the action on this game and want to pile on the Under as well. If you have time, grab it while it is at 10.5, -125 as one of your Tuesday MLB Picks.

Free MLB Pick: Under 10 -105
Best Line Offered: at Heritage
2016 MLB Record: 34-20-3, +13.32 Units

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