Orioles vs. Royals MLB Picks: Game 2 Offers Excellent Underdog Value

Saturday, April 23, 2016 12:00 PM GMT

The second game of a three-game set between division leaders Kansas City and Baltimore will commence tonight at Camden Yards. Let's review the MLB odds and cash a ticket.

MLB Record: 6-6, -0.99 units

Baltimore Orioles (10-5, +6.4 units)
Bettors who have backed Baltimore this season in their MLB picks can't be anything but satisfied with the performance of their Orioles thus far. However, last night proved to be a losing proposition as the MLB odds makers installed the O's as +120 road dogs and failed to deliver a financial return for the Baltimore faithful. In their first game of the season against the defending World Champion Royals, Orioles' starter Yovani Gallardo departed after two innings with a shoulder injury, allowing four earned runs, and the writing was on the wall. Baltimore's bullpen did a stellar job the rest of the way and limited Kansas City to just three hits and no runs in the 4-2 loss.

Tonight it will be young righty Tyler Wilson making his first start of the season after toiling in the bullpen. Wilson owns a 1.13 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in three relief appearances. Last season he was 2-2 in five starts and relief performances with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. Wilson has never faced Kansas City but the return of pitching coach Dave Wallace after a four game absence for personal reasons could be a calming influence.

Kansas City Royals (11-5, +6.1 units)
Royals' starter Chris Young shook off his early season blues and kept the Orioles in check by copping his first double digit strikeout game in eight years. Young notched 10 K's over the course of six innings of work, allowing a pair of earned runs on four hits. However, his pitching heroics were matched by the offensive fireworks of third baseman Mike Moustakas who had three RBI's on three hits including a homerun shot. After approximately 10 percent of the season behind them the Royals are 11-5 and in first place of the AL Central by half a game over the White Sox.

Veteran right-hander Kris Medlen will look to notch another check mark in the win column for the Royals today as he makes his third start of the season for Kansas City. In his previous two starts Medlen has allowed three earned runs while striking out 11 over 11 and a third innings for a 2.38 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. Medlen is 1-0 when starting against the O's with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 0.833.

Betting Analysis
The Royals are 8-3 (+4.3 Units) against the Orioles over the last three seasons in games played in Kansas City. Kris Medlen is a battle tested starter and will be pitching for the first time at home this season. On the other hand the Orioles' Tyler Wilson is a wildcard. We are not sure what to expect in his first start of the season but thus far his relief appearances have gone well. Nevertheless there is a world of difference between coming in for an inning or two and being counted upon to go at least six. He performed his starter duties reasonably well last season but tonight he will face a solid batting lineup and a team that is one of the most sound defensively.

The Orioles are 2nd in batting average, 2nd in slugging percentage and 4th in on base percentage but are surprisingly 10th in runs scored. Certainly no shame in being the 10th best offense in terms of scoring but it indicates there have been more than a few missed opportunities. In addition the Royals are 4-1 in their last five Saturday games and 4-0 in Medlen's last four following a quality start in his previous game. The Orioles are just 3-4 on the road while the Royals are 7-2 at home. Though the O's have the edge offensively I cannot help but side with the home team and the veteran pitcher.

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Free MLB Pick: Royals -127
Best Line Offered: at YouWager