Orioles Poised To Knot Series vs Astros With Lots Of Runs

Manny Machado

Sunday, August 21, 2016 3:42 PM GMT

The Astros have pummeled Orioles pitching over the past two games and will try to do the same in this series finale. Let's review the MLB odds and back the right side in this American League battle.

Swinger's MLB Record: 64-39, +23.29 units
I hopped on another underdog in my MLB picks yesterday but the pups continue to disappoint me. Yesterday the Colorado Rockies were getting a nice price from the MLB odds makers at home as they looked to make it two straight over the visiting Cubs. Not only did they get throttled 9-2, the Rockies didn't even score enough runs to get over the posted total of 12 in that game. Yes, it was a double-dipping defeat for yours truly as we flamed with the Rockies and over, which brings our record down to 64-39 and +23.29 units. Let's reverse course and cash a winner, or two, this afternoon.

Shop Live Odds For Astros vs Orioles

Astros' Bats Lifting Off
Houston has hammered Orioles' pitching over the past two games, scoring a combined 27 runs in those two victories. Last night catcher Jason Castro led the boom brigade, launching his ninth home run of the season and driving in four runs en route to the 12-2 victory. Every starter scored at least one run for Houston in Saturday's win and the Orioles have now lost eight of 12 which has seen them tumble to third place in the AL East, 2 ½ games behind division-leading Toronto.

Despite this recent power surge the Astros own just the 24th ranked team batting average at .248 but their run production ranks them a respectable 11th in the majors while they are a middling 15th in on-base and slugging percentage. Second baseman Jose Altuve's bat continues to sizzle as he has picked up six hits and a walk in this series which has only added to his league-leading .366 batting average. Twenty-six-year-old George Springer leads the team in the long ball department with 25 on the season.

Betting Analysis
We know the Houston bats have been on fire and we also know that the Orioles look as though the long grind of the MLB season is beginning to take its toll. Baltimore has been losing recently and today they trot Yovani Gallardo (4-4, 5.18, 1.61) to the hill who has struggled to get past six innings this season, having completed seven full only once. Yet the veteran hurler has been decent enough over his last three starts with a 1-1 record, allowing only a combined six runs. What is most impressive is his record against the Astros as he is 15-4 when starting against Houston with an ERA of 3.11 and a WHIP of 1.241. His team's record is 16-5 (+8.9 units) in these starts.

The Astros will counter with Dallas Keuchel who has dropped three of his last four starts including a brutal outing in his last appearance against the Cardinals where he allowed six runs on six hits over just five innings of work in the 8-5 setback. Keuchel has had flashes of brilliance this season but the long ball has gotten to him as he has allowed 18 home runs which are one more than he allowed all last season.

Gallardo is pitching much better than Keuchel recently and has owned the Astros throughout his career. This also looks like a spot where the offenses generate plenty of production as I suspect Keuchel gets knocked out early from a Baltimore onslaught and Houston will get perhaps three runs off of Gallardo before they get a few more off the Orioles' bullpen. This looks like a play on the over to me. The Astros are getting production from their lineup and we know the Orioles have a penchant for hitting the long ball as they lead the league in that category with 190 dingers on the season. The O's are getting a struggling pitcher in Keuchel and the bullpen on both clubs could be a very busy place this afternoon. I am going to double dip once again as I see the Orioles managing to win a shootout at Camden Yards.

Free MLB Pick: Orioles +106
Best Line Offered: at BetCRIS

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2992763, "sportsbooksIds":[118,19,238,93], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

FreeMLB Pick: Over 9 ½
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2992763, "sportsbooksIds":[19,169,1096,118], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]