A pair of MLB Props for today to continue our pretty successful second half. Last Wednesday we lost a quarter unit thanks to Anthony Rizzo not coming through, we are bouncing back tonight!
Odubel Herrera O/U 2 ½ runs, hits and RBI's
One of my favorite baseball names in the entire major leagues also has a very favorable matchup this evening as the Phillies take on the Braves. Tyrell Jenkins is on the mound for the Braves tonight, and he has been shelled ever since making his major league debut. He has made three starts and after a few good ones he got rocked for seven earned runs against the Rockies last time out.
He has been pretty good against lefties this season, which makes this matchup so intriguing and it's likely one of the reasons the over presents such good MLB Odds value. Lefties have a .219 BABIP and a .237 average against Jenkins this season, but if Jenkins gets rocked early on, Herrera's chances of getting on base and scoring makes him a great MLB Pick at odds of +130 for the over.
The sample size is also not too large for Jenkins, whereas Herrera has been beating up on right-handed pitching ever since coming into the league. This season he has a .303 average and all 11 of his homers have come off right-handers. He also has a .347 BABIP against righties and is coming into this one hot. Herrera is hitting .333 in his last seven games, so if he can scratch out one or two hits against Jenkins and the Braves tonight, the over has too good of value to pass up, assuming he can come around to score or knock someone in as well tonight.
Free MLB Pick: OVER 2 ½ (+130)
Best Line Offered: at Bovada
Jose Abreu O/U 2 runs, hits and RBI's
My best bet of the night is Jose Abreu. The White Sox' young first baseman slumped early in the season but is really turning it on as the high-summer months hit. He is hitting .310 in July and .357 in his last eight games and he also is a unique righty hitter that also hits right-handed pitching very well.
Abreu is hitting .289 against righties this season with nine of his 11 homers coming off right-handers. He has a .336 wOBA against them with an insane .332 BABIP as well, so combined with his matchup with Ricky Nolasco tonight, it makes Abreu a must play.
At only two runs, hits and RBI's, one big hit or homer could cash the over for us. Assuming he gets two or three chances to face Nolasco this evening, I have no idea why you wouldn't bet the over here. Nolasco has been shelled against righties this season to the tune of a .307 average and a .363 wOBA. He has an ERA of 7.06 against right-handers this year as well. Add in a .338 BABIP and 41.7 fly ball rate against right-handers, and you can see why I like this play so much.
Abreu hasn't hit a homer since the 23rd of June. I understand why there is a discount on his runs, hits and RBI's tonight because of this. However, he cashed the over in three of his last seven games with runs, hits and RBI's, so while it doesn't need one to leave the park, that would make things easier for us tonight against Nolasco, who has given up 12 homers to righties this year.
Free MLB Pick: Over 2 (-115)
Best Line Offered: at Bovada