MLB Picks: Orioles vs. Blue Jays - Value On Picking Baltimore

Baltimore Orioles

Thursday, September 29, 2016 4:31 PM GMT

Today looks like another chance to grab some plus money value on a game I think it could go either way when Baltimore visits the Toronto Blue Jays. Orioles are a +150 underdog across multiple sportsbooks but is it a wise play to go against Toronto at home? 

Baltimore Orioles
Ubaldo Jimenez takes the mound for the Orioles and comes in with a 5.71 ERA, 1.61 whips, and an eye-popping 9.42 ERA versus the Blue Jays. On those numbers alone you would think he would be made a huge underdog in this spot but oddsmakers have not gotten crazy with the line for good reason. On closer look, Jimenez has pitched really well over the past couple months allowing just 18 earned runs in just under 60 innings of work. True his numbers against Toronto are horrible but in his last outing against them, he was solid allowing three earned runs off of five hits in just under seven innings of work. As well, in his last five road appearances (three of them starts) he has been fine allowing just eight earned runs in 27 innings of work. He has really turned his season around the second half of the year so this is good plus money value on him and a Baltimore team that can flat out hit.

Toronto Blue Jays
Marcus Stroman gets the start for the Blue Jays and comes in with a 4.34 ERA and 1.28 whip while holding the Yankees to just one hit in his last start. Considering his last starts, overall numbers, and Toronto's better offensive numbers at home it is natural that Stroman has been made the favorite but he is being a bit overvalued I believe. Although he did pitch well in his last start at home his numbers are not great with a 4.55 ERA and allowing 95 hits in 97 innings. As well, he has been far from lights out versus the Orioles with a 7.88 ERA allowing 14 earned runs in 16 innings along with 24 hits. Those numbers have been pretty spread out in his three opportunities to face them and in his one shot at home he didn't fare that well giving up four earned runs in five innings. Sure he should be favored by on closer look I think this is a great value to take a shot against him today.

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays
Oddsmakers have come out making the Orioles a +150 underdog or better across the board. For my MLB pick, you can get them at the really good number, just check SBR's list of the best sportsbooks. Although it is never easy to go against Toronto at home this is great underdog value on a pretty even pitching matchup.

Free MLB Pick: Baltimore Orioles +168
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes
July/August record:
30-23-2
September record: 15-19-1

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