MLB Picks - NLCS Game 3 Betting Preview - Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Jake Arrieta Pitching

Tuesday, October 18, 2016 12:45 PM GMT

With the series tied up at one game apiece, the Cubs travel to the City of Angels as slight road favorites in the MLB odds, thanks to one Jake Arrieta taking the mound. Our MLB betting expert analyzes this game.

Now, all tied up at 1-1, the National League championship series heads to Los Angeles. We have another solid pitching matchup with Jake Arrieta taking the mound for Chicago versus Rich Hill for the Dodgers. Oddsmakers have made Arrieta a decent road favorite in this spot so is there any value in backing the Cubs?

Chicago Cubs

Jake Arrieta gets the start for Chicago and comes in with a 3.10 ERA and 1.08 whip while allowing two earned runs off of six hits in six innings in his only postseason start. It makes sense that he is the favorite in this spot because he is arguably the best right-handed pitcher in baseball but this year he has been hittable at times. Just prior to and after the All-Star break in four of his starts Arrieta allowed five or more runs four times which is really out of character for him.

Despite those high run totals he is also had his share of stellar performances in that same timeframe allowing one earned run or less five times, so the question is which Arrieta shows up today? He has only seen the Dodgers once this season and that was all the way back in the end of May but he did throw seven innings of shutout baseball off of just two hits. I have no problem backing him today at a pretty small favorite number considering he could dominate today.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Rich Hill takes the mound for the Dodgers and comes in with a 2.12 ERA and 1.00 whip while allowing five earned runs off of nine hits in seven innings of work versus Washington this postseason. That was off of two starts in Washington so this will be his first opportunity to pitch at home in the playoffs. In 20 game started the season only twice did he allow four earned runs as his worst two outings, but I am sorry I'm just not that high on him and believe he is more than capable of getting knocked around. His numbers I believe are a little bit inflated considering the fact he just hasn't pitched that many innings over the last few seasons but we are talking about a guy with a career 4.10 ERA. All due respect in what he has accomplished the season but I think the Cubs have a shot of scoring enough to win this game as they have hit left-handers extremely well this season ranking first in on base percentage, and second in home runs, batting average, and OPS in the NL. Fortunately for them the left-hander they are facing today is not named Kershaw.

MLB odds

Oddsmakers have made the Cubs slightly above a -120 favorite across the board. Check SBR for the best odds but for my MLB pick I'm going to take the Cubs at -122 at Bookmaker. This is not a very big number to back one of the best pitchers in the game.

Remember to drop by SBR's list of the best-ranked bonuses, and find out which of the top sportsbooks is offering the top rated sportsbooks.

Free MLB NLCS Pick: Cubs -122

Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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