MLB Picks: More Than Enough Quality At-Bats Expected Between The Mariners And Astros

Seattle Mariners' Nelson Cruz, right, and Robinson Cano celebrate Cruz's two-run

Monday, September 26, 2016 2:51 PM GMT

We head to Houston as the Seattle Mariners visit the Astros in a crucial wildcard showdown. We are going to take a look at the total for this game and see if odds makers have provided us with any value. Will this be a pitcher's duel or will the offenses plate more runs than anticipated?

Seattle Mariners
Hisashi Iwakuma gets the start for Seattle and comes in with a 4.04 ERA and 1.31 whip with batters hitting .282 against him on the road this season. I'm a big fan of Iwakuma but I think he is in a tough spot today to hold down a Houston offense that has had decent success against him this season. Against the Astros in three starts, he has given up eight earned runs off of 16 hits in 17 innings giving him a 4.24 ERA. In his only opportunity to pitch in Houston, this season he gave up three earned off of seven hits in just five innings and I don't look for him to get out of this game unscathed. At the plate Seattle has had some struggles recently and in their last series versus the Astros they didn't do much. However, they are a good offense with some dangerous hitters and they should be able to score a few today to help get over the total. If they can't get to today's starter they might have more success against an Astros bullpen that has really struggled recently.

Houston Astros
Collin McHugh takes the mound for Houston with a 4.61 ERA and 1.45 whip but just a 3.76 ERA at home this season. Despite his low home ERA batters are still hitting .276 against McHugh in Houston. And despite that fact, he has pitched extremely well versus Seattle in four starts allowing just three earned runs in 25 innings pitched giving him a 1.08 ERA versus the Mariners the season. On that statistic alone it seems this total is a bit too high but this will be the fifth time he has faced them this season which will only benefit I believe Seattle in scoring a few. As well, he is not gone very deep into games over his past several starts so, as mentioned, Seattle will probably get some scoring opportunities against Houston's bullpen. At the plate, Houston has been scoring at a pretty decent clip over the past several games and should be able to springboard off of their four-run nine-hit performance yesterday versus the Angels.

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros
Oddsmakers have come out with the total for this game at 8.5 across the board with higher juice on under the total. For my MLB pick, I'm going to go for the better odds and take over the total in one of the best sportsbooks. I can understand why the juice is higher on the under but I expect for the offenses to put together quite a few quality at-bats.

Free MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-108)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle
July/August record: 30-23-2
September record: 15-15-1

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