MLB Picks: Iglesias Will Lead Reds To Victory vs. Mets

Monday, April 25, 2016 6:19 PM GMT

The Mets have some of the filthiest stuff in baseball in Noah Syndergaard, but we're also high on Raisel Iglesias of the Red as he could give Cincinnati nice value vs. New York.

MLB Record: 8-12-1, -3.02

Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets
The visiting team could be undervalued Monday night behind a pitching with a very promising future, as that probable future stud Raisel Iglesias and the Cincinnati Reds (9-10, 1-5 away) pay a visit to another young great fellow right-hander Noah Syndergaard and the New York Mets (10-7, 2-4 home) at Citi Field in Flushing, NY at 7:10 ET in a game available on SNY.

The posted money line at BetOnline has Cincinnati as a decided underdog for this contest at current MLB odds of +178.

Mets Would Rather Stay on Road?
The Mets currently sit at 2-4 while averaging just 2.50 runs per game with a woeful team batting average of .191 here at home, but the offense did perk up on their just completed nine-game road trip on which they went 7-2 and averaged a potent 6.56 runs per game. Then again, the Mets have not been a good hitting team at home ever since spacious Citi Field first opened up, so who is to say that their hitting woes will not resume now coming home?

The Reds finished just one game ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies last season for the dubious distinction of owning the worst record in baseball, and although they come off of a series where they were the losing MLB picks in three out of four games vs. a red-hot Chicago Cubs team that now stands at 14-5, that still leaves Cincinnati at a more respectable one game under .500 at 9-10 through the early going.

Cuban Defector Could Be a Steal
Iglesias defected from Cuba a little over two years ago, and the Reds thought so highly of the youngster that they signed him to a seven-year $27 million contract. That contract may look like a bargain in a couple of years given the current market if Iglesias pitches to the potential that made him the Reds' opening day starter this season in just his second year in the Major Leagues.

More importantly, we feel that the optimism surrounding the now 26-year-old is well warranted. Sure, he went just 3-7 with a 4.15 ERA after getting called up as a rookie last year, but he also had an excellent 104 strikeouts vs. 28 walks in 95.1 innings. Averaging an impressive 9.82 strikeouts vs. 2.64 walks per nine innings is a pretty good way to get through Major League life, and those ratios led to a much more flattering 3.55 FIP and 3.28 xFIP last year.

He now continues to be on the right track this season in his second year in the league with a 3.09 ERA, 2.97 FIP, 3.55 xFIP and 8.49 strikeouts vs. just 1.93 walks per nine innings while not allowing more than three runs in any of his four starts. Furthermore, this will be his first ever start against the Mets, which should make him doubly tough to hit.

Much Respect for Thor
Now do not get us wrong, as we have all the respect in the world for the hard-throwing Syndergaard, who is nicknamed Thor due to his long flowing blond hair. After all, Syndergaard combines hitting 100 MPH on many occasions with great command for someone so young, as he has 195 strikeouts vs. a measly 35 walks in 170 Major League innings since getting called up last year.

So while we have no issues with Syndergaard, we just do not think he will get great run support here. You see, one key reason the New York offense perked up on its just concluded road trip was because the Mets hit 23 home runs over the nine games, all actually coming over the first eight games of the trip.

Thus, the Mets did not really manufacture that many of their runs, and many of those home runs hit on the trip would turn into long fly balls at Citi Field, which is precisely the reason New York has not hit as well here as it has on the road since this stadium opened in 2009. Throw in facing the dangerous Iglesias and these two offenses could get neutralized, inherently giving value to the decided underdogs from Cincinnati in a close matchup.

Even Trouble With Losing Teams
Finally, not only have the Mets played better on the road than at home but they have even struggled vs. the lesser teams when playing at Citi Field, going 1-4 in their last five home games vs. teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. The Mets are also 0-4 in their last four home games vs. right-handed starters, while the Reds are 19-9 in their last 28 road games vs. teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400.

Given this huge price and this pitching matchup being closer than some may be led to believe, look for those trends to continue as we recommend going for the value with Cincinnati at nice underdog odds visiting the New York Mets in Flushing on Monday.

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Free MLB Pick: Reds +190
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker