MLB Picks: Expect A Good Pitch From Veteran Pitchers When Yankees Host Division Leading Indians

Carlos Carrasco

Sunday, August 7, 2016 3:28 PM GMT

Both Carlos Carrasco and Masahiro Tanaka had a rough time on the mound in their last appearances for the Indians and Yankees respectively. Can these two pitchers bounce back with two quality starts or will they get shelled again?

Cleveland Indians vs N.Y. Yankees
Odds makers have this game on the total line between 8 and 8.5 across the board. For my MLB pick I'm going to back under the total with MLB odds showing 8.5 like at Heritage sports -115. Although the juice is a bit higher to grab that half run I think there is value there and I expect both of these pitchers to pitch well today.

Cleveland Indians
Carlos Carrasco in his last start allowed eight earned runs off of nine hits along with two home runs in just three innings versus the Minnesota Twins. However, he comes in today's ballgame with a 3.12 ERA and 1.10 whip and for the most part has been absolutely fantastic this season. He simply had a horrible performance against a Minnesota Twins team that has been hitting the ball very well recently but looking closer at his last 10 games we can see how tough he has been. In his nine starts prior to that bad last outing he had given up just 12 total earned runs in almost 60 innings of work which is really just lights out.

As well, he has been truly a road warrior with a 1.72 ERA away from Cleveland with batters hitting just .177 against him. I fully expect a complete bounce back game from him and to dominate the Yankees for most of this game. At the plate Cleveland is one of the best offensive teams in baseball and in their last 10 games they have been scoring runs at an impressive clip despite the handful of losses in that same timeframe. Although they rank fourth in the major leagues in runs scored per game there is a pretty large disparity between their home 5.75 average, ranking them third, and road 4.36 average, ranking them 18th.

New York Yankees
Masahiro Tanaka allowed six earned runs off of eight hits along with two home runs in just six innings in his last outing against the New York Mets. He had a similar bad outing back in late June allowing the same amount of damage to the Texas Rangers but outside of that in his last 10 games he has been pretty solid. Oddly enough his numbers drop a little bit at home as he has been better on the road this season but on closer look in his last three years prior to this one he holds a 2.98 ERA with batters hitting just .216 against him in Yankee Stadium.

He did not pitched that well against Cleveland in his only start this year against them allowing seven runs total off of 10 hits in five innings but only three of those runs were earned. Like Carrasco for the Indians I expect a nice bounce back game from him and to keep the Indians to a respectable number. At the plate the Yankees rank among the worst offensive teams in baseball ranking 19th hitting .250 as a team, 22nd in runs per game, and 28th in OPS. Outside of an offensive explosion in the first game of this particular series in their other nine out of their last 10 games they are averaging just three runs per contest.

Free MLB Pick: Under the total of 8.5 -115
Best Line Offered: at Heritage​
July record: 13-9
August record: 4-2

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