MLB Picks: Dodger Rookie Phenom Worth Backing in Milwaukee

Tuesday, June 28, 2016 11:45 AM GMT

Our MLB handicapper analyzes this matchup well past the team records and finds a clear advantage for the road team as he makes his Tuesday MLB Pick.

L.A Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers
The Los Angeles Dodgers (42-36 SU) travel to the Milwaukee Brewers (34-41 SU) for a Tuesday night game as they look to keep pace in a National League that is currently stratifying into the haves and have-nots. With the exception of the NL East, most races are getting out of hand, with the Dodgers sitting 7.5 games back of the San Francisco Giants as I write this even though they are 6 games over .500. The Brewers currently sit 14.5 games back of the Cubs in the Central and sit in 4th place – I would expect them to be sellers at the trade deadline.

With the Dodgers currently holding a much better record than the Brewers, they have opened as moneyline MLB odds favorites on the road at -132 at BetOnline, with the O/U total sitting at 9. The run lines are offering the Dodgers at -135 when giving up 1.5 on the road.

The Brewers starter, Chris Anderson, had his last start in the rotation skipped after an absolutely terrible outing versus these same Dodgers on June 18th. In that game Anderson only lasted 2.1 innings, gave up 7 earned runs, 8 hits, and 2 home runs while walking 3. The listed reason was for ‘rest', but the Brewers have to be looking at all other options to see what they have before the trade deadline at this point. On the year, Anderson is 4-7 and has posted a 5.13 ERA, 60/21 K/BB rate, 1.28 WHIP, and .253 batting average against. Those aren't exactly the worst numbers after the ERA, which ballooned about .7 points after his last start against the Dodgers. His walk and home run rates are up against 2015 though, and that type of trend will always get you into trouble.

Anderson had some success against the Dodgers as part of the Diamondbacks organization in 2015. In that season he faced the Dodgers three times, giving up just 4 runs over 17 innings pitched. A far cry from his result this season. Maybe rest is all the young pitcher needed in the first place.

Starting for the Dodgers is their exciting 19-year old phenom, Julio Urias. After dominating minor league hitters since he was 16, it was time for the Dodgers to call up Urias in late May. Since then, he has posted and 0-2 record, although he's only pitched enough innings to qualify for 4 wins in the first place. He has also posted a 4.33 ERA, 35/9 K/BB rate, 1.48 WHIP, and .284 batting average against. There are some good signs though, as Urias' BABIP currently sits at an unsustainable .386 and his average exit velocity on contact is one of the lowest in the majors. His fielding independent pitching average of 3.46 indicate that he has gotten unlucky with balls in play as well. The kid still has good stuff and is a nightmare for left-handed batters with a 40% strikeout rate. It's the righties that have given him a little bit of trouble so far this season.

The line has started moving in the Dodgers direction and I can't really fault the crowd in this one. Even though the WHIP and ERA of these pitchers suggest a closer matchup, the peripheral statistics strongly favor Urias in this game. And since Urias probably won't go deep into the game, the 3.08 vs. 4.16 ERA advantage the Dodger's bullpen has over Milwaukee's should also come into play. Look for the young left hander to pick up his first MLB win in this game and take the Dodgers one of your Tuesdays MLB Picks.

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Free MLB Picks: Dodgers -135
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes
MLB 2016 Record: 30-15-3, +14.11 Units

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