MLB Picks: D-Backs Going For The Sweep Against Giants

Saturday, May 14, 2016 12:47 PM GMT

This NL West rivalry continues with visiting Giants winning the first 2 of a 4-game set with Diamondbacks. Let's review the MLB odds for this Saturday night showdown in the desert and cash a ticket.

2016 MLB record (19-10, +8.65 units)

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

San Francisco Giants (20-18, -0.9 units)
The Giants have won the first two games against their hosts, the Arizona Diamondbacks, and look to build on a three-game winning streak in order to overtake the LA Dodgers for first place in the NL West. Last night the Giants sent veteran Jeff Samardzija to the hill, whom the MLB odds makers installed as a -165 road favorite over the D-Backs and their starter Shelby Miller. Despite the 3-1 victory it was not a walk in the park for Samardzija as he allowed eight hits but contained the damage to just one earned run after getting three 1-2-3 innings and a few timely double plays from his defense. Angel Pagan returned to the lineup after missing 11 games with a strained hamstring and made an immediate impact with a single and a run scored.

The veteran Jake Peavy (1-4, 8.47 ERA) takes the bump after dropping his last three starts, with the latest being a 3-1 defeat against the Blue Jays on Monday night. Peavy surrendered three runs on five hits and five walks with six strikeouts after five innings of work in the loss. The former NL Cy Young Award winner has only one quality start this season, as the Monday night loss marked just the second time Peavy has allowed fewer than four earned runs this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks (17-21, -4.9 units)
San Diego had reeled off five consecutive wins, capturing a series sweep of the Braves and gunning for another over the Rockies before they bowed 8-7 in the finale of a three-game series in Colorado. Their return to the desert has not gotten off to an auspicious beginning after the team's nine game road swing. The D-Backs have lost their first two at home to the Giants by scores of 4-2 and last night by a 3-1 margin.

Patrick Corbin ( 1-3, 4.12) gets the start for Arizona after pitching seven scoreless innings in his last outing, in which the D-Backs claimed a 5-3 extra innings victory over Atlanta. The 26-year-old out of Clay, New York did not factor in the decision but scattered five hits of shutout ball and struck out five in the process. Corbin is 4-4 in his career starts against the Giants with an ERA of 3.41 and a WHIP of 1.078.

Betting Analysis
As great an asset as Jake Peavy was back in his halcyon days with the Padres, he has become just about as much of a liability for the Giants this season. But before we eliminate the Giants from our MLB picks this evening let's look at a few other factors. Peavy has faced the D-Backs just once this season and it resulted in a 9-7 home loss after he tossed just five innings of seven hit ball leading to four earned runs. As bad as Peavy's ERA is (8.47) it is far more abysmal on the road. Peavy owns a 14.25 ERA with a 2.50 WHIP and an 0-3 mark when on the highway this season.

I guess the problem I am having with fading San Francisco based primarily on their starter is that the Diamondbacks have been hugely disappointing at home this season with a 5-14 record (-11.8 units) at Chase Field. Though Arizona boasts one of the more potent offenses in the league (6th in runs scored, 7th in batting average, 11th in on base percentage and 5th in slugging percentage) it should be noted that the Giants' offense is equally adept (5th in runs scored, 9th in batting average, 5th in on base percentage and 14th in slugging percentage).

Arizona's southpaw Patrick Corbin has not been without his faults this season but did look razor sharp in his last outing when he pitched seven scoreless in Atlanta. Another check mark in the plus column for Arizona is that the Diamondbacks are 8-2 over his last Saturday starts. San Francisco's Jake Peavy could very well get knocked out of the box by the third inning and if that is the case then the D-Backs would likely cruise to a victory and snap San Francisco's mini-winning streak.

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Free MLB Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks -130
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker