MLB Pick: Martinez & Kazmir Bring O/U Value In Cardinals vs Dodgers

Saturday, May 14, 2016 11:51 AM GMT

The Cardinals take on the Dodgers for game two of their three-game set. We are going to look at the total for this matchup and see if the MLB odds are set just a little bit too high.

The MLB odds have set the total for this game at 7.5 like at Pinnacle sports -117. For one of my MLB picks I'm going to back under the total as I like this pitching matchup and both teams have decent enough bullpens to keep this final score low. Although the juice is a little high with the way the situation matches up there is still good value on backing the under.


St. Louis Cardinals
Carlos Martinez gets the start for St. Louis and comes in with a 2.61 ERA and 0.97 whip with the Cardinals ranking third in the major leagues hitting .277 as a team. Martinez can be really dominant at times and so far on the road this year in just two starts he has been solid allowing just two earned runs in 14 innings. In his last three seasons against the Dodgers he has pitched well in five starts allowing just nine earned runs in 28 innings for 2.89 ERA as well as Los Angeles hitting just .223 against him.

Having him on the mound should give the Dodgers some trouble today but also St. Louis has a solid bullpen with a 3.42 ERA. Offensively the Cardinals are one of the best in the major leagues ranking third in batting average in runs per game, as well as second in OPS. However, their numbers drop significantly against left-handers batting just .254 as a team which ranks seventh in the National League and their OPS goes down to .754 which ranks sixth.

This a really good hitting team that hits well on the road but they could have some difficulty plating enough to get over the total.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Scott Kazmir gets the start and comes in with a 5.54 ERA and 1.42 whip with the Dodgers hitting .240 as a team which ranks 20th in the major leagues. Kazmir has not started out the season well but it seems like he is starting to pitch somewhat better. His big issue recently has been giving up the long ball and in his last two games he gave up two a piece versus Tampa Bay and the New York Mets.

He is a solid major league starter though and has the kind of stuff that could keep St. Louis down in the numbers. The Dodgers bullpen has been good not great having just 3.61 ERA which ranks them fifth in the National League but more impressively batters are hitting just .212 against them which has them ranked second. Los Angeles is a decent hitting team but Martinez can be lights out at times and looking at the statistics overall there isn't a lot on the offensive side that makes the Dodgers intimidating.

Along with their low batting average Los Angeles ranks 23rd in OPS, 17th in runs per game at a bit over four per contest, and 24th in total bases. They also rank 27th in home runs per game. Expect Martinez to keep them in the park and down in the numbers.

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Free MLB Pick: Under 7½ -117
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle Sports