MLB Odds: Indians Looking To Set Team Record vs. Blue Jays

Friday, July 1, 2016 11:30 AM GMT

The Indians seek a club-record 14th straight victory when they square off with the Blue Jays in Toronto this afternoon. Get your free pick with betting analysis here. 

Cleveland Indians (48-30) – Josh Tomlin (9-1, 3.32 ERA)
The Indians tied a team record with their 13th straight win Thursday night, beating the Blue Jays 4-1 in Toronto. Going 22-6 in the month of June, Cleveland owns a six-game lead over the Royals in the American League Central with the All Start Break looming.

Manager Terry Francona turns to Josh Tomlin to set the club's win-streak record. After plotting three no-decisions in a row, the six-year veteran picked up a victory in a 9-3 rout over the Tigers last time out. Overall, Cleveland is 20-3 in Tomlin's last 23 starts dating back to August 2015. He and the pen yield 3.4 runs on 7.3 hits per game during this span, supported by a whopping 6.0 runs on 10.1 hits.

Tomlin's control this season is top tier, walking just eight hitters in 362 plate appearances. Only Clayton Kershaw (.62) has a smaller walk per nine innings ratio in the majors.

Tomlin is 1-0 with a 5.19 ERA in three career starts against the Jays. Toronto's current roster is 7-for-33 with a .212 batting average against the predominantly cutter-tossing righty.

Cleveland's +94 run differential is the second-highest in MLB behind the Cubs (+169). Crossing the plate 4.88 times per game, Francona is not afraid to slip his guys into scoring position. Swiping .81 bases per contest, they trail only the Brewers (.86) in steals.

The Indians are 9-7 as an away dog this season, returning bettors roughly 22 percent profit at +117 average MLB odds.

Toronto Blue Jays (43-38) – Marcus Stroman (6-4, 5.33 ERA)
The Blue Jays are just 4-7 in their last 11 contests, slipping 5.5 games behind the AL East-leading Orioles. Poor pitching is to blame for the dip in performance. During this stretch, the staff allows 5.6 runs on 10.3 hits per game. Its .248 batting average against is fifth highest in the bigs.

Marcus Stroman, who began the season as Toronto's No.1, has played well below par this year. He takes the pill for the matinee performance. The young right-hander's ERA catapulted from 3.89 to 5.33 over his last six starts, picking up just one victory over this stretch. Toronto is 8-8 in his outings this season, losing six of his last nine.

Stroman has faced the Indians once in his career, chased after 1.1 innings of relief. He was scalped for four earned runs on five hits in the brief appearance.

After a slow start to the season, the Blue Jays offense, which led them to a playoff appearance last season, is taking flight. They posted 5.9 runs per game in the month of June, after pushing over only 4.2 through April and May.

The lineup's 23.5 home runs per at-bat is third most in MLB. The team is 5-17 when failing to pop a dinger this season. Tomlin, for what it's worth, has allowed eight in his last four outings.

Final Analysis
The Jays have gifted five or more runs in seven of Stroman's last nine starts. The Indians are 36-4 this season when slugging in five or more in a game. Tomlin is playing above expectations, but until he shows a hiccup or two, he's a tough fade in this spot. We'll take the Indians at plus odds with Stroman struggling to locate his sinker. Indians +112 in the free MLB pick.

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Free MLB Pick: Indians +112
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline