MLB Betting: Red Sox Mashing Righties Like Gausman In 2016

Wednesday, June 15, 2016 2:00 PM GMT

The Red Sox get another shot at budding Orioles fireballer, Kevin Gausman, on Wednesday night and our MLB handicapper believes the setup has firm value on the MLB Odds here.

The run continues as I am 5-0-1 in the last six for MLB, so let's keep it going as we look at the second game of a very important series between the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox. Monday's 3-2 win for the Orioles put them up one game and into first place in the AL West standings. The line has been late on getting out as it appears that Kevin Gausman will be pushed up to Wednesday from Thursday for the Orioles for this start.

Starting for Red Sox is Steven Wright, who is having one of the best stretches a knuckleballer could ever hope for. On the season Wright has posted an insane 2.09 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 70/33 K/BB rate, and .202 batting average against so far in 2016. In his last game against the Orioles, Wright threw a pitch that became an internet meme to Christ Davis – a pitch that moved at least three directions on its way to the plate.

Of course Davis whiffed at it, even though it was still in the strike zone. Wright has one of the highest whiff rates in the league for pitches that end up in the strike zone, but who knows where they start. Certainly not Wright. He is also very successful in avoiding hard contact and inducing weak contact. This has led to a 3.9% HR/FB rate, which is by far the lowest rate he has carried in his career as a starter. It's been a good season so far for Wright, and a knuckleball that is working is deadly. It's just when they stop working when you have a major issue.

Speaking of pitches that move, Kevin Gausman is a young fireballer for the Orioles that has a fastball that actually rises over an inch on its way to the plate. That helps him run a 14.3% infield fly ball rate which would be one of the top rates in the league if he qualified with enough starts. Gausman has yet to win a decision so far this year and has compiled an 0-3 record over 10 starts and 60 innings pitches. He has also put up a 3.45 ERA, 54/15 K/BB rate, 1.22 WHIP, and .247 batting average against.

Gausman's last start against the Boston Red Sox was pretty terrible though, as he gave up 3 home runs and 5 earned over 6 IP in a 6-2 loss. That was a game I hand Under 9 on and won, even after Mookie Betts of Boston blasted those 3 home runs. That kind of success by one player is unlikely to happen again and kind of inflates the success that Boston had against Gausman in the game.

Both of these pitchers are exhibiting great O-U trends to take a look at. Even though Wright is 4-1 O-U at home, he is just 4-6 O-U on the year. Gausman's road trend is the opposite on the road at 1-4 O-U, and a very strong 3-7 O-U over his ten starts. Although those trends suggest a lean to the under, the overall season trends for Boston suggest taking the over when they face right handers is basically an auto bet.

The Red Sox are mashing right handed starters to the tune of 5.9 runs per game and .293 batting average against, which has led to a 31-22 SU record and 29-19 O-U. Baltimore wins at about the same rate against right handers, but is just 22-23 O-U with 4.9 runs scored per game.

Now with the line finally out we have Wright and the Boston Red Sox favored at -133 at BookMaker on the moneyline. The O/U total has come in at 9.5 runs, with shades to the under at almost every book. The early knee jerk line movement has come in on Baltimore, as the line has been bet down from -150 within an hour. I'm focusing on the the fact that Boston crushes right handers and that Wright has been tough on Baltimore in the past, so I'm taking what I consider home team value and the Boston Red Sox at -133 at BookMaker as my Wednesday MLB Pick.

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Free MLB Pick: Red Sox -133
Best Line Offered: at BookMaker
2016 YTD MLB: 25-11-2, +13.69 Units