MLB Betting: Correlation Between Team Records & Their OPS Part 3

Wednesday, June 22, 2016 4:00 AM GMT

This is part 3 of a 4 part article in which I show the correlation between TRGS (team record games started) numbers and their OPS counterparts.

MLB Betting: Correlation Between Team Records & Their OPS Part 1

MLB Betting: Correlation Between Team Records & Their OPS Part 2

Parts 1 and 2 dealt with the correlation between home TRGS records and their corresponding OPS numbers. Both articles proved the positive correlation to the degree of 67% between the two. Just a reminder to those who are not familiar with the extraordinary importance of OPS numbers for both batting and pitching, an OPS number is a combination of OBP (on base percentage) and SLG (slugging percentage) for either a team, a hitter, or a pitcher. As I have proven in numerous articles this season, and last, the OPS has the greatest correlation to success and failure.

I do not want to mislead you into believing a pitcher's home/road OPS is the only number to influence the TRGS. For a team's batting number and a team's bullpen OPS are also leading indicators. That is what makes the TRGS a true barometer of past and future success. More so than the personal W/L record of a starting pitcher.

In the part 3 chart below, I isolate 33 pitchers whose road OPS is .630 or less. That is 100 points below the average for the year, which has now risen to a recent high of .740 entering this week's play. Each pitcher must have at least 5 road starts to be included in the research. The chart will also indicate the pitcher's ERA, his WHIP, and his BAA. With all this pitching data available, we will then provide conclusions. Though some pitchers may not be in the current rotation, keep this list ready for any time they are reinserted. The list is in order of best to worst.

Pitcher

TRGS

OPS

ERA

WHIP

BAA

C. Lewis

5-2

.438

1.29

0.71

.154

Arietta

7-0

.465

1.84

0.80

.157

Tanaka

4-3

.466

1.32

0.90

.200

Nola

5-2

.470

2.68

0.89

.191

Maeda

5-1

.483

2.14

0.92

.185

Chatwood

6-1

.490

1.25

0.97

.187

Teheran

4-3

.495

2.10

0.66

.149

Greinke

6-0

.505

1.47

0.84

.197

C. Martinez

4-1

.508

1.78

0.96

.192

Hill

6-0

.511

1.40

0.98

.190

S. Wright

4-3

.531

1.54

1.00

.179

Kershaw

7-0

.535

1.87

0.77

.196

Sale

5-2

.545

2.09

0.99

.212

Hamels

5-2

.565

1.64

0.99

.182

Kluber

4-4

.568

4.02

0.93

.204

Lester

5-1

.575

1.69

1.02

.232

Sanchez

5-3

.576

2.43

1.06

.205

Pomeranz

2-5

.584

3.12

1.19

.184

Strasburg

5-1

.590

2.11

1.10

.297

Price

4-2

.594

3.57

1.09

.209

Sabathia

4-3

.597

2.14

1.21

.209

Estrada

4-3

.597

3.28

1.07

.189

Rusin

3-2

.605

3.81

1.31

.226

Cole

4-2

.611

2.43

1.19

.245

Cueto

7-0

.611

2.28

1.12

.220

Zimmerman

4-2

.614

1.96

1.09

.247

J. Gray

2-4

.618

4.17

1.12

.218

Corbin

5-2

.624

2.66

1.11

.227

Lackey

5-2

.624

3.63

0.94

.217

Happ

4-4

.625

2.63

1.02

.197

Matz

4-2

.626

2.35

1.17

.264

Bauer

2-3

.627

2.84

1.23

.243

Syndergaard

5-1

.629

2.03

1.05

.223

These MLB Odds are even better than the home numbers from parts 1 and 2 of this series of articles. Road pitchers with at least 5 starts and who have an OPS of less than .630 have a TRGS of 151-66 (69.6%). But wait! It gets even better! If we use these pitchers with a .630 or less road OPS in three other different categories, the winning percentage soars over 70% to consider for betting at the sportsbook of your choice.

•106-42 (71.6%) if the road OPS is less than .600
•132-49 (72.9%) if the road OPS is less than .630 AND the WHIP is less than 1.15
•127-4 (74.3%) if the road OPS is less than .630 AND the ERA is less than 3.00

Those are some powerful numbers to consider when you are looking at your starting pitchers each day for MLB picks. I suggest you keep this list handy for your handicapping each day. Much like the home numbers in parts 1 and 2, they are valuable indicators.