Less Offensive Output Today In Boston As The Orioles Visit The Red Sox

Dylan Bundy pitching during a game

Tuesday, September 13, 2016 2:35 PM GMT

Oddsmakers have set the odds for the Orioles and Red Sox a bit too high, according to our betting expert. In this article he provides his free MLB pick alongside his analysis of the odds for this game

 

One of the best matchups today in major league baseball takes place in Boston as the Red Sox host the Baltimore Orioles. We are going to take a look at the total for this matchup as oddsmakers have set a rather high considering both of these offenses can put up runs in a hurry. Yesterday both teams combined had quite a few quality at-bats, will that carry over into today's contest?

Baltimore Orioles
Dylan Bundy gets the start for Baltimore and comes in with a 3.82 ERA and 1.37 whip but a 6.52 ERA versus Boston in two appearances this season. It is highly doubtful that Bundy will get out of this contest unscathed as he has been just a completely different pitcher on the road this season with a 5.23 ERA and batters hitting over .290 against them compared to his 2.72 ERA at home. This does not seem to bode well for Bundy but his innings will be limited and he actually does have the capability of keeping teams down in the numbers at times. I think the third time will be a charm for him today because the young 23-year-old is actually better than his overall numbers indicate and over his last 10 starts three times he has held teams to zero runs and those were no cupcakes in the Indians, Rangers, and Yankees. He will need to find a way to translate his home success to some road success and I believe he will be decent enough to help stay below this big number. At the plate Baltimore is one of the more dangerous teams in the American League, however, this will be the first time they have faced today's starter for Boston and versus left-handers, they're really struggling to hit just .234 this season which ranks last in the American League.

Boston Red Sox
Drew Pomeranz takes the mound for Boston and comes in with a 3.01 ERA and 1.15 whip allowing just 13 earned runs in his last six starts. After a rough game against the Los Angeles Angels back at the end of July, Pomeranz has turned his season completely around and has pitched well both at home and on the road. He has not had many opportunities to pitch in Boston but in his last three home starts, he has allowed just six earned runs in about 18 innings of work. As well, in his last six starts he has allowed at most three earned runs in any game which he did just one time. Look for him to have a quality start today and keep a Baltimore team that struggles versus left-handers off-balance. At the plate, Boston is the best hitting team in baseball so it is never easy to back under the total in any game they are involved. Still, despite their surge, their last several games they are not immune to being tempered just a bit. It is true they have had quite a bit of success against today's starter for the Orioles but this a big total so expect for them to score, but not enough to assist and getting over this high total.

Final Analysis
Oddsmakers have come out with a total of 9.5 across the board in this matchup of two good offensive teams. For my MLB pick, I'm going to back under the total of 9.5 like at Heritage sports -105. There are some other sportsbooks with some pretty good odds in backing under the total. Find the best MLB odds and back the under in a game that will have less scoring than yesterday.

Free MLB Picks: Under 9.5
Best Line Offered: at Heritage which is offering a 50% Cash Bonus

July/August record: 30-23-2
September record: 8-5-1

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