Home Dog Value Pick: Bet On Nelson's Right Arm To Upset Visiting Cubs

Cubs vs Brewers

Friday, July 22, 2016 3:37 PM GMT

The Chicago Cubs have been less than stellar recently and are currently .500 in their last 10 games. Still, MLB Odds have the Cubs too big of a favorite in this spot?

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers

MLB odds have made Milwaukee a decent home underdog like at +153 at BetOnline. With their best starter on the mound, I'm going to back the Brewers tonight for my MLB pick to pull off the upset against a Chicago team that has been playing less than elite baseball. This is all about the value and I think this is good plus money in backing Milwaukee.

Chicago Cubs
Jason Hammel gets the start for Chicago and comes in with a 3.34 ERA and 1.10 whip while the Cubs are hitting .255 as a team which ranks 15th in the major leagues. Over the past month, Chicago has not looked like the predicted World Series champs. I still like them to make a deep playoff push and perhaps come out of this season on top as some have predicted, however, this is a good spot today to go against them with some plus money. Offensively their overall statistics are impressive like ranking third in runs per game and fifth in OPS but they haven't had a ton of success against today's starter for the Brewers. Hammel has been excellent this season and in his last 10 starts, he has been stellar except for one hiccup against the Mets back in early July where he got rocked for 10 earned runs. Despite that he has been a very consistent pitcher, however, Milwaukee should have a bit of confidence coming in facing him as they garnered four earned runs off of five hits in six innings thanks to two home runs against him earlier in the season.

Milwaukee Brewers
Jimmy Nelson takes the mound for Milwaukee with a 3.39 ERA and 1.37 whip with the Brewers hitting .246 as a team which ranks 22nd in the major leagues. This value play is definitely not backed by a very good Milwaukee offense because they rank in the bottom part of the league in most categories. However, most of those statistics jump significantly at home like going from 3.77 runs on the road to 4.20 runs in Milwaukee, as well as an OPS that goes from .686 to .744 which is one of the biggest disparities in major league baseball (as a side note Colorado leads the league in this category with their OPS jumping up over an incredible .200 points at home!) The value for this pick is really siding with Nelson who has pitched very well against Chicago in his two starts this season allowing just one earned run off of seven hits in over 12 innings pitched. At home, he has been particularly good with a 2.45 ERA and batters hitting under .230 against him with a 4-3 record. Chicago is without a doubt the better team but today plus money value has me taking a shot on the Brewers.

Free MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers +153
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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