Great Value When Transforming MLB Favorites Into Run Line Underdogs

Tuesday, June 7, 2016 12:00 PM GMT

I am now in my 7th year of my unique run line tracking of MLB teams. Once again this season, my method has proven to be quite valuable in isolating run line plays.

2016 Run Line Results Revisited
Monday, June 06, 2016
By Joe Gavazzi, Winning Sports Advice

To review the methodology for new readers, my run line data gives the results for each team's margin of victory or defeat, home and away. This way, we know which teams are great MLB Picks, on and against, in specific situations. I first handicap the game in question to determine the winner. Then I choose whether to play it on the run line, using the run line data.

The results below are through Sunday, June 5, 2016. At this point in the season, teams have played approximately 55 or 56 games, which is a little more than 1/3 of the way through the season towards the World Series. With the amount of data available, the information presented is quite valuable.

I record the run line results for each team by each of the four different categories:
•Record for the team at HOME if they win by 2 or more runs
•Record for the team at HOME if they lose by 2 or more runs
•Record of the team AWAY if they win by 2 or more runs
•Record of the team AWAY if they lose by 2o r more runs

Rather than present this lengthy chart and ask you, the reader, to search for the results, I will forthwith present the best of the best in selected categories.

Consider playing ON these teams HOME/AWAY on the run line when you handicap them to win the game:
Chicago Cubs: 32/39 wins by 2 or more runs (82%)
LA Dodgers: 25/31 wins by 2 or more runs (81%)
Boston Red Sox: 28/33 wins by 2 or more runs (85%)
Colorado Rockies: 21/25 wins by 2 or more runs (84%)
St Louis Cardinals: 27/30 wins by 2 or more runs (90%)

Consider playing AGAINST these teams HOME/AWAY on the run line when you handicap them to lose the game:
New York Yankees: 24/30 losses by 2 or more runs (80%)
Texas Rangers: 18/22 losses by 2 or more runs (82%)

Consider playing ON these teams at HOME when you handicap them to win the game:
Toronto Blue Jays: 12/14 home wins by 2 or more runs (86%)
Detroit Tigers: 13/15 home wins by 2 or more runs (87%)
LA Angels: 11/12 home wins by 2 or more runs (92%)

Consider playing AGAINST these teams at HOME when you handicap them to lose the game:
Colorado Rockies: 13/15 home losses by 2 or more runs (87%)
Arizona Diamondbacks: 17/20 home losses by 2 or more runs (85%)
San Diego Padres: 14/17 home losses by 2 or more runs (82%)
New York Yankees: 10/12 home losses by 2 or more runs (83%)
Detroit Tigers: 10/12 home losses by 2 or more runs (83%)
Cleveland Indians: 10/12 home losses by 2 or more runs (83%)

Consider playing ON these teams on the ROAD when you handicap them to win the game:
Washington Nationals: 15/19 road wins by 2 or more runs (79%)
San Francisco Giants: 15/19 road wins by 2 or more runs (79%)
Tampa Bay Bucs: 12/14 road wins by 2 or more runs (86%)
Baltimore Orioles: 10/11 road wins by 2 or more runs (91%)
Kansas City Royals: 9/11 road wins by 2 or more runs (82%)

Consider playing AGAINST these teams on the ROAD when you handicap them to lose the game:
Atlanta Braves: 16/17 road losses by 2 or more runs (94%)
Miami Marlins: 10/11 road losses by 2 or more runs (91%)
Oakland Athletics: 14/16 road losses by 2 or more runs (88%)

There are 24 situations, all with 79% or more significance that you can use on a daily basis when looking to make run line plays on the MLB Odds. Remember to handicap the game as you normally would, then consider making it a run line play with the help of the above data.

In the previous 7 years, the run line results have been very consistent, with close to 70% of all MLB games each season decided by 2 or more runs. Using the home/road dichotomy, we find that 66% of the games at home are decided by 2 or more runs, while 74% of the games on the road are decided by 2 or more runs. This year through 1/3 of the season, the numbers for home teams are noticeably higher.

In fact, 299/427 home wins (70%) are decided by 2 or more runs. That is a meaningful 4% more than the 7 year average. It is easy to see why that is the case if we know that the average batting OPS is .730 this year, as opposed to previous years when the average was .710. Yet the line maker has not budged his run line numbers. This allows us great value when transforming MLB favorites into run line underdogs.