Get The MLB Betting Advantage TODAY With These Overnight Lines

Friday, April 29, 2016 11:16 PM GMT

Our sports handicapper provides a look on some Overnight MLB Betting Lines for the games taking place on Saturday, April 30. Visit here and get the betting edge.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
I have been repeatedly betting against Alfredo Simon in the first month of the season and I am quite frankly surprised he has survived to live another start in this Cincinnati rotation but he is the currently scheduled starter for this Saturday night game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. Simon has been absolutely lit up to an extreme level in his first three starts of the season but especially in his last two starts both of which came against the Chicago Cubs.

He has allowed 19 runs on 22 hits along with 4 home runs in 9.1 innings for an unsightly 16.39 ERA here in April. Simon has already faced Pittsburgh once this season and that was his lone halfway decent outing allowing 2 runs in 5 innings but a second look for the currently red hot Pirates lineup (Pittsburgh has scored 6+ runs in six of their last seven games) is not likely to produce good results for the struggling Simon. I expect him to have another rough outing here but there is ample evidence to also show the Reds might be able to get on the scoreboard in this game too facing Pirates lefty Francisco Liriano who has hit a speed bump.

After a great first start here at PNC Park against St. Louis, he has labored in his last three starts with a 6.46 ERA during that span against Cincinnati, San Diego and Arizona surrendering 11 runs on 16 hits in his last 15.1 innings of work along with a whopping 5 home runs allowed and 12 walks during that span showing plenty of control and command struggles. We should see a higher scoring contest here in a game that has Over the total potential. Pittsburgh's team total Over is also worthy of my MLB pick in this matchup.

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Free MLB Pick: Over 8
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
It's not easy to make a case to bet against Mat Latos right now but I am going to make one anyway. Latos has had a shockingly impressive first month in the White Sox rotation with a 0.74 ERA in four starts but there are several metrics pointing to the fact he is likely to regress a bit and not be able to sustain this kind of performance. Latos has a FIP of 3.56 and xFIP of 4.96, a very low BABIP of .167 and a very high 96.9% strand rate which means he has also been able to minimize damage and get his way out of potential danger on more than one occasion. He's faced Minnesota, Oakland, LA Angels and Texas to start the season and I'd only classify Texas as an above average lineup out of that group.

Another mild concern for Latos is that his swinging strike rate is a very low 5.3% here in April so while he has only allowed two runs in 24.1 innings pitched this month, he is still not missing a ton of bats and his strikeout rate remains low at 4.81 k's per 9 innings this season. This is easily going to be the toughest lineup for him to face as Baltimore continues to hit well early in the season averaging 4.52 runs per game ranking the Orioles 9th offensively in MLB. Kevin Gauman will get the start for Baltimore and he looked sharp in his initial start of the season against Tampa Bay holding the Rays to 1 run on 3 hits in 5 innings of work.

Gausman has not faced the Chicago White Sox in the past and should lend an advantage to him facing a White Sox lineup that has been very inconsistent and spotty with their run production in the first month. It's worth noting Baltimore's bullpen has been one of the best in MLB here in April while the White Sox have had a good bullpen too but will be missing their closer David Robertson for this game as he's away due to death in his family and won't return to the team until Sunday. Baltimore is a solid home favorite here at -127 on the MLB odds, which currently Bookmaker/BetCRIS are offering the best odds. I think the Orioles own the edge and will pick up a victory here.

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Free MLB Pick: Baltimore Orioles -127
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline