Free Picks: MLB Underdog Shocker On Cardinals +170 Over Cubs

St. Louis Cardinals

Sunday, August 14, 2016 5:09 PM GMT

Our MLB betting expert previews Sunday night’s game between the Cardinals and Cubs. Go inside to read this intriguing betting article culminated by a surprising MLB pick.

NL Central Rivalry Continues at Wrigley
The Cardinals and Cubs continue their long standing NL Central rivalry tonight at Wrigley Field in Chicago. The first pitch is slated for 8:08 PM ET, and it will be televised by ESPN. St. Louis has won two of three heading into this series finale against the Cubs. Chicago is 6-5 in the overall 2016 season series, and six of those eleven games has stayed under the total. At the time of this writing, MLB betting odds at Sports Interaction had the Cubs as a sizable -200 money line favorite.

Starting Pitchers
Mike Leake has really struggled over his last five starts, evidenced by his 7.39 ERA over that course of time. Nevertheless, since 2015, Leake has made five starts against the Cubs and compiled an exceptional 0.85 WHIP. Somehow, St. Louis managed to lose four of those five games.

John Lackey has exhibited impressive form over his previous three starts, proven by a 2.14 ERA, and microscopic 0.76 WHIP through that time period. This will be the Lackey's first start in 2016 against his former club. He did make three starts versus St. Louis a season ago and had a very good 2.70 ERA in those appearances.

Contrarian Approach
The Cubs had its 11-game win streak snapped on Saturday but still remain a sizzling hot 14-2 over their last sixteen games. They've also gone a very profitable 41-18 (.695) at Wrigley Field this season. Despite yesterday's defeat, Chicago is a stellar 6-1 in its preceding seven games following a loss.

St. Louis is now MLB best 33-23 (.589) on the road this season. Thank goodness they've enjoyed that type of success during away games, because they're a head scratching 28-33 (.459) at Busch Stadium. The good news for St. Louis was Saturday's win. The bad news, they've lost five straight following a win, and their bullpen has pitched a combined 11.0 innings in its last two games

The majority of data pertaining to Sunday's game points to a decisive Cubs win. Nevertheless, when it comes to sports betting, it's just never that easy. I have a money line betting angle that supports the money line underdog in this matchup and clearly, defines what a contrarian handicapping theory is.

Any money line road underdog of +100 or more, going with a starting pitcher who possesses an ERA of 7.00 or worse over his last five starts, and their bullpen has pitched a combined 9.0 innings or more during its last two games, resulted in those road underdogs going 33-18 (64.7%) since 2012. The average price for those money line underdogs was +151.2. Hypothetically, by risking $100 per bet on the aforementioned 51 underdogs, you would've netted a profit of $3190. I'm going with a low risk and high reward wager in this one for one of my Sunday MLB picks.

MLB Picks: Cardinals +170
Best Line Offered: at Sports Interaction

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