If you haven’t been following my prop plays on Wednesdays and Fridays over the last month, I feel sorry for you. We have been crushing it this season and I am once again feeling good about my two plays tonight after cashing two picks on Wednesday night.
Tanner Roark O/U 5½ Strikeouts
Tanner Roark is pitching lights out this season. The kid has a 2.82 ERA and batters are hitting just .238 off him this season. He isn't a huge strikeout pitcher, but he has been improving in that area this season, which leads me to think he could go over his 5½ total on the MLB betting odds tonight against the San Diego Padres.
The Padres' offense is always fun to pick on. They are banged up and not very good to begin with this season and they have made right-handed pitchers look really good this season. San Diego has a strikeout rate of 24.6 percent this year against righties, which is the second highest mark of any team outside of the Brewers, who have a 26.2 percent strikeout rate against righties. The Padres also have only a .288 weighted on base rate against righties, which is also second worst of any team other than the Braves.
We have already cashed a play on Roark this season and tonight is the night we do it again. Roark hasn't been mowing guys down, but his strikeout rate this year is a modest 21 percent, but it is about three points better than his career average. He also is averaging 7.65 strikeouts per nine innings.
If you look at some of his starts this season, Roark is averaging exactly six strikeouts per game when he goes at least seven innings. He had only five strikeouts in six innings of four-run ball against the Padres back in mid-June, but tonight in Washington DC, where his K% goes up to 22.6 percent and his opponent's wOBA is only 2.67, I see Roark going seven strong with at least six punch outs.
Free MLB Pick: Over 5½ -125
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline
Adam Conley O/U 5½ Strikeouts
If Roark is my good play of the night at 5½ strikeouts, Adam Conley is my great play. It's a two-pitcher-palooza for my MLB props picks and Conley presents even better value for over 5 ½ strikeouts at even money. Conley is a little known lefty in Miami, who has also quietly posted solid numbers for the Fish at 6-5 with a 3.61 ERA in 19 starts and 104 2/3 innings this season.
Conley also owns a superb 8.86 strikeouts per nine innings rate this season and an above average strikeout rate of 22.9 percent. Oh, did I mention he also gets the Mets tonight at home where batters have a .206 average against him?
The Mets are also not great against lefties. As a team they have a 23.8 percent strikeout rate and a .244 average against southpaws, which is fourth highest and sixth lowest respectfully this season.
Conley has also been dominant recently. In three of his last four starts he pitched a combined 15 1/3 innings and averaged 8.3 strikeouts per game. Imagine if he can put that kind of strikeouts together over six or even seven innings? Only five and a half strikeouts for Conley against the Mets tonight is criminally good value from Bovada and if you combine it with the fact that the over is even money, it makes for my must play prop of the night.
Free MLB Pick: Over 5½ +100
Best Line Offered: at Bovada