Encore Homer-Fest At Safeco When Yankees Visit Mariners Once Again

Seattle Mariners

Tuesday, August 23, 2016 5:05 PM GMT

With the Mariners rotation in flux, a late line has led to some early betting value on the total. Read on as our MLB handicapper breaks down this pitching matchup between Walker and Sabathia.

NY Yankees vs Seattle Mariners
We have a late line here, with the Mariners starting rotation in flux as they deal with multiple injuries. Last night, Cody Martin and his 6.57 ERA got the call for the M's, but somehow managed to get a no-decision in the 7-5 dinger-fueled Mariner win. It was just the fourth start of Martin's career. In this game, it looks like the Mariners are calling back up Taijuan Walker, who was sent down to AAA to work on some stuff – even missing his bobblehead night last weekend in the process.

The Yankees counter the M's situation with one of more certainty, as a 16-year veteran, C.C. Sabathia, will get the call on Tuesday night. Sabathia has been spectacularly average on the season so far, posting a 7-10 win-loss record, 4.49 ERA, 110/51 K/BB rate, 1.40 WHIP, and .255 batting average allowed. He has had some hot stretches, though, particularly at the beginning of the season, where he allowed a 1.04 ERA in May and 3.68 ERA in June. His performance after the All-Star Break has been less than stellar, though, coming in at a 6.00 ERA over 42 innings pitched while allowing a .277 batting average to oppose batters.

Sabathia struggles mightily with keeping right-handers in the yard, which is probably why he sees them stacked against him often. C.C. has seen right-handers an incredible 80% of the time this season, or more exactly, 107.1 IP versus just 23. Righties slug a robust .404 off of Sabathia, versus just .341 for lefties. His batting average splits are even more dramatic, as he allows righties to hit .264 off of him as opposed to .214 for lefties.

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When looking at Seattle's history against Sabathia then, it is no surprise that lefties Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager carry .214 and .125 batting averages against. However, we will likely see Nelson Cruz, Franklin Gutierrez, Mike Zunino, and Adam Lind (a lefty with a .467 reverse split) have some success against Sabathia. Cruz and Zunino homered last night as well.

In his stint in AAA, Walker put up a decent ERA at 3.60, but there are indications the positive returns were false. A 6/8 K/BB ratio will do that, elevating his fielding independent pitching ERA to 5.61. Walker's struggles this year can be pointed directly at his tendency to give up the long ball, as he is carrying an 18.3% HR/FB rate on the season. That rate will counteract a pretty good 1.19 WHIP and .246 batting average allowed. On the season so far, a win-loss record of 4-7 over 17 starts is indicative of the consistency issues that he has had all season.

Last night's homer-fest for the Mariners pushed their Over trend to 5 games in a row coming into tonight, and they've averaged 6 runs per game in their last seven. Safeco has run a 34-26 O-U split favoring the Over on the season and has surprisingly been one of the most homer-happy fields in the MLB. These team trends, along with C.C.'s poor second half and 6.62 ERA over his last three starts, plus Taijuan's home run troubles and general untrustworthiness, has me looking at the total here rather than taking a side. I think there is plenty of value on the Over here, which is listed at just 8 runs. The wager is getting plus odds at some books as well, like at Pinnacle hanging an 8 with +103 next to it. Expect more offense tonight, and take Over 8 runs at Pinnacle +103 as your Tuesday night MLB Pick.

Free MLB Pick: Over 8 (+103)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle and at BetOnline

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