Confidently Pick Over As Padres Match Up With Cards & South Paw Hurler Garcia

Paul Clemens

Wednesday, July 20, 2016 2:58 PM GMT

Our MLB handicapper looks to keep his winning record going as he analyzes the second game of a double-header between the Padres and Cardinals on Wednesday night. Read on as he brings wagering value to your card!

San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals
Two teams with a 148 run differential difference meet in the second game of a double-header on Wednesday night, as the San Diego Padres (41-52) continue their mid-week series against the St. Louis Cardinals (48-44). The game on Tuesday was rained out, but this matchup will be played at its original time at 5:15 EST. Although these teams have vastly different records they each come into this matchup with a 5-5 SU record in their last ten games. The MLB odds for this game heavily favor the home team, and the Cardinals can be found as steep as -185 on the money line at Pinnacle. The O/U total can be found at both 8 and 8.5 runs, with shades towards the under and over, respectively.

Jaime Garcia starts for the favored Cardinals, and is coming off of 2 no decisions in a row in which he gave up 4 earned runs. On the year Garcia has put up ok numbers, posting a 6-6 record, 4.11 ERA, 89/38 K/BB rate, 1.36 WHIP, and .258 batting average against over 107.1 innings pitched. Garcia has been very good at home in his 60.1 innings pitched in St. Louis. There he has given up just a .223 batting average allowed versus a .297 batting average on the road. He has also put up a 3.88 ERA and 1.194 WHIP, but the wins haven't followed as the Cardinals are 3-7 SU in his starts at home. His O-U record at home also indicates he has pitched well there, going 3-6 favoring the Under this season.

Paul Clemens will get his first start as a Padre this season after being relegated to bullpen duty since coming over from the Marlins. His major league statistics only cover 13.1 innings in 2016, but in AAA ball for the Marlins he put up a 6-4 record, 4.30 ERA, 66/25 K/BB rate, 1.21 WHIP, and .229 batting average allowed. I don't have much on Clemens other than he is susceptible to the long ball. The right-hander gave up 5 home runs in his first 10 innings pitched for Miami in June.

Being that Clemens is a relatively unknown commodity at this point, we should look at St. Louis's performance against right-handers on the season. Over 63 starts the Cardinals are putting up 5.3 runs per game against righties, while batting .261. They are 35-28 on the season and +3.2 units as well.

In comparison, the Padres are very good against left-handed starters this year. Over 27 starts they are 16-11 SU, good for +9.4 units. They are also 17-10 O-U while putting up 5.8 runs per game and batting .275 on the season. Not bad for a team that is 11 games below .500 on the year.

With the weather obviously being a factor we have the chance that this game won't be played at all on Wednesday. There is a 50% chance of precipitation on the day with a humid high of 91 degrees. It's going to be awfully sticky in the stands should the game go ahead as planned.

With the weather being as hot as it is, and the Padres matching up with a left-hander, I believe the value here is in the total. Clemens is not going to pitch a shutout by any means and may be left in longer than usual if the bullpen gets taxed in Game 1 of the double-header. For that reason, I'm going to take Over 8 while I can at Heritage -115 making that my MLB pick.

Free MLB Pick: Over 8 -115
Best Line Offered: at Heritage
2016 YTD MLB: 36-20-3, +15.32 Units

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For more Padres-Cardinals action on this double-header game go to SBR MLB Odds