Back Nationals To Cover The Spread In Game 3 vs. White Sox

Thursday, June 9, 2016 2:03 PM GMT

It hasn’t been much of a series so far with Washington winning the first 2 games by scores of 10-5 and 11-4. Let's study the odds and determine what the correct MLB picks is for this game.

Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox
Last night's victory extended the Washington record to 36-23 with only the Cubs sporting a better mark. The 21-12 road record is more road wins than any team in MLB. The Nationals have dominated American League competition this year, going 9-2, while outscoring their Interleague rivals (70-38).

Chicago White Sox
The story has been completely different for the White Sox. Following a 23-10 start, I warned that the White Sox were overheated based on their No. 25th ranked OPS of .693. True to expectations the Pale Hose have gone 6-20 to fall below .500 at 29-30 on a 5-game losing streak. Today's replacement starter, M. Gonzalez, is vying for the 5th spot in a competition with struggling veteran Latos.

M. Gonzalez had a promising outing vs. the Mets, allowing just 1 ER in 5 IP. Far prefer the slants of G. Gonzalez, however, who has a solid .689 OPS on the road. Furthermore, he has been outstanding in Interleague play this year going 2-0 in 12 IP, allowing 2 earned runs with a 1.50 ERA.

Washington Nationals
Each day, the handicapper is faced with the conundrum of playing momentum vs. the concept of bounce back or letdown. In this case, the decision is clear. Until the White Sox' trend of negative momentum, keyed by their substandard hitting, turns itself around, they are a clear PLAY AGAINST team. In the other dugout is a Washington team, who is hungry for success this season, after underperforming in 2015. They have a huge hitting advantage in this matchup, a slight edge in the bullpen and a clear edge in starting pitchers. The price in this game opened at Washington (-150). It has been bet down with Washington (-125). In my opinion, that provides clear value on Washington in this game.

Conclusions
We can gain even more value by playing this game on the run line. For the MLB season, 72% of all MLB games have been decided by 2 or more runs. That is even higher in the last 13 days, in which 142 of 185 MLB games (76.7%) have been decided by 2 or more runs. With the Washington Nationals having more road wins than any team in MLB and winning 17 of those 21 victories by 2 or more runs, it is a clear choice to opt for the run line. I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB pick on the Washington Nationals tonight.

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Free MLB Pick: Washington Nationals -1.5 (+130)
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker