Astros & Rays Are Not Going To Produce A Lot Of Offense, Under Is Value Pick

Blake Snell

Saturday, August 27, 2016 4:40 PM GMT

The Houston Astros are holding on by a thread in the wild-card race in the American League. Today they face a weak hitting Tampa Bay team. Are the pitchers going to take center stage? Read our free MLB Pick.

Tampa Bay Rays
Blake Snell takes the mound for Tampa Bay with a 3.17 ERA and 1.59 whip but just a 2.42 ERA on the road this season. The rookie had a really rough outing in his last start which was at home versus Boston allowing two earned runs off of four hits in just under four innings but allowing five walks. That has been troublesome for him as he has allowed 15 walks in his last four starts which are something that he will have to be better at as he continues his major league career. On the road this year he has been extremely tough but in his last road start, he was awful allowing two earned runs off of five hits in just over an inning of work in Toronto. Still, he has shown the capability to keep teams low in the run column and he faces a Houston team that struggles a bit versus left-handers as well as having lower offensive numbers at home.

At the plate, Tampa Bay has been consistently one of the worst offenses this season and versus left-handers, they're hitting just .243 which ranks second to last in the American League. As well, they rank second to last in the major leagues in striking out at over nine per game.

Shop For Live Odds On The Rays vs Astros Game

Houston Astros
Dallas Keuchel gets the start for Houston with a surprising 4.64 ERA and 1.28 whip but just a 3.70 ERA at home with batters hitting .234 against him. In Houston, he has been much better than on the road this season but surprisingly he has not had the type of year overall that would've been expected looking at how he pitched in 2015. This should be a little bit of a bounce back game for him against Tampa Bay as his one chance against them he was subpar allowing four earned runs in just five innings. However, in that matchup, he did have nine strikeouts so he should come in with a lot of confidence to put up zeros on the board against the Rays. He has been hot and cold recently but overall in his last 10 starts he has shown the ability to hold teams to some reasonable numbers and has really only had two rough starts in his last 10 appearances. In his last two home starts, he was Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde allowing six earned runs in just five innings versus St. Louis and then prior to that allowing zero earned runs off three hits in a complete game shutout of the Rangers. I am siding he will throw like the latter of those today.

At the plate, Houston has been decent this season and rank in the middle of the league in most categories. However, their numbers actually drop at home across the board like averaging about 4.9 runs per game when they travel compared to just around four at home. They also have not hit left-handers this well ranking just ahead of Tampa Bay hitting .246 against them.

MLB odds
Oddsmakers have come out with a total of 8 for this contest across the MLB betting board with about the same amount of juice on the over and the under. For my MLB pick in this matchup, I'm going to back under the total. This should be a really good pitching matchup along with some interesting home and away offensive disparities between these two teams.

Free MLB Pick: Under 7.5
Best Line Offered: at JustBet
July record: 13-9
August record: 13-11-1

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