West Virginia Mountaineers vs Iowa State Cyclones - ATS College Football Pick

Iowa State Cyclones Players Celebrating

Friday, November 25, 2016 8:33 PM GMT

The Iowa State Cyclones have had sneaky value ATS this year, and our College Football Handicapper likes their chances to pull an upset against a ranked opponent at home in their final game of the season.

2016 College Football Record: 32-29-2, 0.00 Units

In a series that has seen West Virginia dominate over the last few years, the 18th ranked Mountaineers travel to the Iowa State Cyclones in search of their 9th win of the season. Iowa State is just 3-8 on the season, but have shown value at home going 5-1 ATS. The Mountaineers opened as 8-point road favorites in this game, but that number was quickly bid down to -7 as early bettors grabbed the important number for a home underdog. The total currently sits at 57.5 points or 58 points depending on your sportsbook.

Iowa State finishes its 2016 season with two home games, and this one can't go much better than last week where the Cyclones throttled Texas Tech 66-10. In that game backup QB Joel Lanning, who has special run-first packages in the offensive playbook, tied a school record with 5 rushing touchdowns. Lanning lost the starting quarterback job early in the year to Jacob Park, a Georgia transfer, but has excelled in the packages the coaching staff has built for him so far. Park had a good day himself against Texas Tech, passing for 285 yards and two touchdowns. Both Park and Lanning should see the field Saturday against West Virginia, and I expect the coaching staff to pull out all of the stops in the last game of the season at home.

That big win is most likely the reason that the spread compressed from 8 to 7 points, and should offer up enough hope in Matt Campbell's initial year as head coach at Iowa State to buy him another year. Another reason for the line dropping is the disappointing performance of West Virginia last week at home against 9th ranked Oklahoma, where they lost 56-28 as a 3.5-point underdog. It was the 3rd ATS loss for West Virginia in the last 4 games. And although they are 8-2 SU on the season, they are just 4-5 ATS.

In that game last week, Oklahoma blew out to a 34-0 lead to take over the game before West Virginia even showed up. There were multiple turnover killing drives for West Virginia as well. There were some good outcomes though, as Mountaineer running back Justin Crawford ran for 331 yards in the game, 3rd most in school history. But the loss took West Virginia out of the running for the Big 12 Championship, and I would think there could be a let-down this week as a result.

With one team trending up, and the other down, I like the prospect of getting 7 points at home here with Iowa State and am inclined to follow the initial line move. Take the Cyclones on Senior Day and +7 points at Bovada as one of your Saturday College Football Picks.

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Free College Football Pick: Iowa State +7

Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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