Week 10 NCAAF Picks - Pittsburgh Panthers vs Miami (FL) Hurricanes

Pittsburgh Panthers player

Thursday, November 3, 2016 8:12 PM GMT

The Miami Hurricanes have been in a free fall in recent weeks, and our College Football handicapper analyzes this week's matchup with the Pittsburgh Panthers in ACC action.

Pittsburgh Panthers vs Miami (FL) Hurricanes

Nice 4-1 weekend in College Football this weekend, as my FadeWatch has officially ended. One of my picks was to fade Miami on the road, which cashed as they fell to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Here they travel back home to face the 5-3 Pittsburgh Panthers and are listed as an early 3.5-point favorite at 5Dimes, an A+ rated online sportsbooks . The O/U total has opened up at 58.5 points at the same book, while leaning slightly higher at 59 points at BetOnline.

Miami's recent slide can be attributed in part to some big issues on the offensive line, which has allowed defenses to harass quarterback, Brad Kaaya, without end. In a trend I picked up last week, in the last 4 games combined Kaaya has been sacked an amazing 18 times. Some of these sacks last week were for big losses, as Miami lost 35 yards on those plays. Kaaya should get a much easier test in this game, as the Pittsburgh Panthers are ranked nearly last in College Football at allowing 312.3 passing yards per game. Pittsburgh makes up for this fact by allowing only 103.3 yards per game on the ground, which places them 8th in College Football in that category. Pittsburgh allowed Virginia Tech's quarterback, Jerod Evans, to throw for 406 yards and two touchdowns just last week.

Miami's defense should be key in this game, as they need to play up to their 17th ranking in the nation at 18.9 points allowed here to win. Pittsburgh played another tough defense last week in Virginia Tech, of almost similar ranking statistically, and was able to put up 36 points against them in a 36-39 loss. Miami has allowed just 13.2 points per game at home this year, with conference foes Florida State and North Carolina only putting 20 up on the ‘Canes in those two home games.

Pittsburgh has shown that they can win in Miami though, beating the Hurricanes badly two seasons ago on the road 35-23 at Miami as an 11-point underdog. Miami returned the favor last year, as they beat Pittsburgh as a 7-point underdog on the road, 29-24.

While Miami has followed up their 4-0 SU and ATS start with an 0-4 SU and ATS streak starting with their loss to Florida State, Pittsburgh has another impressive total streak going. Since the opening game against Villanova, Pitt has recorded 7 straight Overs in a row. Of course, that is not a surprise when you average 38.1 points per game on offense while allowing 32.4.

Final Analysis

In a game that should be tightly contested between opponents who know each other's tendencies, I like backing the team getting points. Miami will score for sure, but I like Pittsburgh in a close game and will gladly take the 3.5-points at 5Dimes as one of my Saturday College Football Picks.

Free NCAAF Picks: Pittsburgh Panthers +3.5

Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3027851, "sportsbooksIds":[19,93,1096,180,1275], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/klb0-FcS52k", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]