NCAAF Betting - How Bettors Should React To First CFP Poll

Washington Huskies Players

Wednesday, November 2, 2016 3:33 PM GMT

This seems to be an annual event, the first College Football Playoff Poll comes out and one of the picks makes no sense and it is talked about at every available media outlet that night and next day.

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First off, this poll has zero impact on college football odds for futures wagers. Sportsbooks like A+ rated Bookmaker are using their experts to calculate who the top four teams in college football are and frankly, are not going to swayed as dramatically by so-called strength of schedule. Here is a comparison of the two, with futures odds included.

Here's Bookmaker's Top 8 NCAAF Teams

ALABAMA +145

CLEMSON +527

OHIO STATE +627

MICHIGAN +672

LOUISVILLE +1200

LSU +3038

TEXAS A&M +4500

FBS College Football Rankings Top 8

1. ALABAMA 8-0

2. CLEMSON 8-0

3. MICHIGAN 8-0

4. TEXAS A&M 7-1

5. WASHINGTON 8-0

6. OHIO STATE 7-1

7. LOUISVILLE 7-1

8. WISCONSIN 6-2


In fairness the CFP poll is telling us their opinion of who the best eight teams are, while Bookmaker is giving us the odds of who can win the national championship based on skill and talent, not as specifically on other factors like win/loss record and who has played who.

The big controversy at the moment is Washington and Texas A&M. Washington is undefeated and has not played many difficult teams and they have been hurt by Stanford and Oregon not being close to preseason prognostications. USC and at Washington State are their toughest remaining games.

The Aggies have a loss and it was to Alabama on the road and with how this grading is determined, any SEC team is going to get the benefit of the doubt because of the difficulty of the league. Texas A&M should win at Mississippi State this week and that is followed by three home games, the last on Thanksgiving against LSU.

Bottom line, if Washington is 12-0 and wins Pac-12 title game, they would leap over Texas A&M at 11-1, who would not play for SEC championship.

Other Considerations

Off dull showings against Duke and Virginia, Louisville would need a lot of help to move up, with a relatively weak remaining schedule, with non-Power 5 Houston, already saddled with two losses, their hardest contest left.

The Michigan and Ohio State situation will work its way out and if Wisconsin finishes 10-2, after having played there schedule, they deserve Super Six bowl bid.

Remember, when following these rankings and generating college football picks, a lot happens between now and the end of the regular season, making this a very fluid situation. Chances are one the current Top 3 teams is still best futures bet, unless they lose, which can happen.

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