NCAA Football Week 9 Betting Picks - New Mexico vs Hawaii

New Mexico Lobos

Thursday, October 27, 2016 8:47 PM GMT

The New Mexico Lobos are in a perfect position to have a great game plus facing a defensive line that is just not at the top of their game. Joe Gavazzi provides his college football pick on this late Saturday game.

New Mexico vs Hawaii -3 Midnight ET

Each week in this spot, I isolate an ICE GAME. It features a team playing with (I)ntensity, (C)onviction and performs with (E)xecution. The selections are 5-3 ATS (62%) for the season. This week, the New Mexico Lobos qualify perfectly for this situation. For, their option game is clicking on all cylinders and can take advantage of a Hawaii defensive front that has proven to be permissive on more than one occasion.

Two weeks ago, I used Hawaii as a rare 6% Play against a UNLV team, who sustained multiple injuries to the skill positions of QB and WR. In a rare 6% loss, UNLV came to Hawaii and ran for 256 yards, while passing for 279 yards in a come-from-behind 41-38 victory against the Rainbow Warriors. Last week, following that home defeat, the Warriors took to the road as 17 point dog at Air Force. THEY WERE OUTRUSHED 392-75. That is normally the recipe for an ass-kicking. Yet, Hawaii pulled the upset (34-27) as 17 point road dog. They have, in fact, been an underdog in 4 of the last 5 games. Yes, they have covered all those contests. But, the lone time they were favored (read above), they failed miserably against UNLV. That drops their recent record to 0-5 ATS as home chalk. And, although they hold a (-67) net AFP in this matchup, there has been virtually no adjustment in this number from where it would have been in Week 1. Some may believe the Rainbows will profit from facing an option attack in consecutive weeks. I say, if they allowed 392 RY to Air Force, that their 257/5.3 defensive front is in huge trouble against the Lobos' option!

For the New Mexico offense truly has it going on. They have run for 221 or more yards in every game this season. But, since the start of conference play in October, they have been particularly dominant. Check out these splits! San Jose 428-129, Boise (yes, Boise) 382-65, Air Force (yes, the Fly Boy Flex Bone) 377-280 and last week in a 59-17 decapitation of the ULM Warhawk (a 476-115 overland advantage).

In a game in which it appears the wrong team is favored, look for the Lobos to perform with ICE in pulling what will only be an upset in the minds of the uninformed. I invite you to put the College Football ODDS in your favor and join me in my College Football PICK with the New Mexico Lobos.

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Free College Football Pick: New Mexico +3

Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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