NCAA Football Week 11 Odds: Louisville Will Fail To Cover Big Spread vs. Wake Forest

Florida State and Louisville faced each other for week 3

Wednesday, November 9, 2016 7:15 PM GMT

Based on recent the comments made by College Football Playoff committee members concerning Louisville, it seems they are contradicting themelves. The No. 6 Cards are -34.5 on college football odds this Saturday vs. Wake Forest. 

Say What?

Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino this past Sunday talked about taking no joy in leaving his starters in longer than he wanted in order to beat Boston College as big as possible last week. The Cards rolled 52-7 as 25-point road favorites on college football odds, with Louisville having been positioned at No. 7 in the first CFP rankings. Some CFP committee members countered by saying that margin of victory was less important than strength of schedule.

With now-No. 6 Louisville not having a signature game to grab people's attention left on the schedule, such as Saturday against Wake Forest, what choice do Cards have other than try and crush the Demon Deacons?

Louisville Will Try To Run it Up

Lost in Petrino's argument is one set of facts that was not explained. The Cardinals have set a standard with a dazzling offense that has averages more than 50 points per game and a stingy defense that allows 21.2 ppg. PPG. Yet, against Duke as five-touchdown favorites a few weeks back, the Cards won just 24-14 and vs a bad Virginia team, Louisville had to rally to win 32-25 as a 32-point favorite two low-energy performances.

No team is going to play at a top level every week, but if Cardinals have any hopes of reaching the Final 4, when not playing the first week of December, they have to make such a strong impression they cannot be overlooked.

Wake Forest is by no means a great team, but at 6-3 is having a great year for that program and defensively ranks No..7 in the country in yards per point allowed at 20.0 (tied with Clemson and ahead of Alabama). Petrino should be using this in the media sell the Demon Deacons and unleash QB Lamar Jackson, the Heisman Trophy favorite, and the offense to do damage.

Can Wake Forest Really Cover?

For the Demon Deacons to beat SBR's best sportsbook odds, this is what they have to do. Wake Forest only averages 21.3 ppg. Thus with what Louisville permits, the Deacons have to reach at least their season average. What they do best is run the ball at 4.0 yards a carry. If they can match their season norm of 41 attempts per game and ring up at least 20 points, it's a great starting point.

On defense, Wake has to prevent big plays, since it is a given Louisville will move the ball. Duke allowed 469 yards vs. Louisville but only those 24 points, and the Deacons are far better defensively. Also, Wake Forest has caused 11 turnovers in past four games and the Cards have committed multiple turnovers in all but two games. Put this package together, and the Demon Deacons stay in contest.

Outcome

Wake Forest has lost by 10 and one point to Louisville each of the past two years. Though the Cardinals need to destroy the Deacons, the combination of UofL a little off and not respecting Wake and its defense will see the Deacons overcome the large number.

NCAAF Free Pick: Wake Forest +34.5

Best Line Offered: BookMaker

Season Record: 17-11-1 ATS

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