Free NCAAF Picks - TCU Horned Frogs vs Texas Longhorns

Texas Longhorns teammates in field

Wednesday, November 23, 2016 3:36 PM GMT

SBR handicapping professional Ross Benjamin has gone a terrific 40-20 (67%) with his last 60 college football selections. Join us in reading his betting preview on Friday’s game between TCU and Texas, culminating with a college football free pick.

TCU Horned Frogs vs Texas Longhorns

Texas will play its final regular season game on Friday when they host TCU. The opening kickoff at Texas Memorial Stadium is slated for 3:30 PM ET, and it will be televised by Fox Sports1. TCU has defeated Texas in each of the past 2 years and outscored them by a decisive cumulative margin of 98-17.

At the time of this writing (11/22), college football betting odds at Bookmaker.com had Texas as a 2.5-point favorite, and there was a posted total of 59.0. Bookmaker is offering new customers attractive cash bonuses of 50% on all initial deposits of up to $300. Check out this online sports betting rating guide before deciding on a place to do your wagering.

Shocking Defeat for Texas

The rumors and speculation have been rampant this week in regards to the Texas football program. After all, Texas did the unthinkable last Saturday and lost to perennial Big 12 cellar dweller Kansas as a sizable 22.5-point road favorite. Putting the magnitude of that loss into perspective, Kansas entered that game having gone an abysmal 3-63 in their last 66 Big 12 Conference games. As a matter of fact, that win broke a 19-game conference losing streak for the Jayhawks, and it was a first time they had defeated Texas since 1938.

After an encouraging start, Texas now finds themselves with a 5-6 record, and on the cusp of a losing season for a second straight year. It seems inevitable that head coach Charlie Strong won't return for his 4th season in Austin. He's been given ample opportunity to get things headed in the right direction, but since taking over in 2014, Texas has gone an uninspiring 16-20. It seems like light years have passed since the Longhorns opened its season with a thrilling 48-45 overtime win over Notre Dame. Considering Notre Dame's current 4-7 record, that victory looks minuscule now compared to then.

After losing to Kansas, there were many surprised by Strong not being fired almost immediately. Quite frankly, this is a lame duck Texas coaching staff heading into Friday's regular season finale. The question now becomes, how will Longhorn players respond against TCU.

Horned Frogs off Embarrassing Home Loss

The best sportsbooks certainly showed a lot of respect for TCU last week. After all, the unranked Horned Frogs opened as a 4.0-point favorite against #13 Oklahoma State and even closed as high as a 6.5-point chalk at Heritage. Nevertheless, they were throttled 31-6 by Oklahoma State and were thoroughly dominated from start to finish. The defeat dropped their season record to 5-5, and they need at least 1 win in its final 2 regular-season games to become bowl eligible.

Betting Angle

Any conference home team that's +3.0 to -3.0, coming off a conference game, versus an opponent coming off a conference home loss by 14 points or more, resulted in the home teams going 23-6 ATS (79.3%), and 23-7 (.767) straight up since 2013.

In an otherwise evenly matched game, I'll lean on the above betting angle, and home field advantage when making one of my college football week 13 predictions.

Free NCAAF Pick: Texas -2.5

Best line Offered: at Bookmaker

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