Free NCAA Football Picks Against The Spread - North Carolina vs Miami - Week 7

Miami Hurricanes Players Rushing The ball

Wednesday, October 12, 2016 10:37 PM GMT

Expert capper Joe Gavazzi each week isolates a steamroller that will run up and down their opponents in college football. This theory has an effectiveness of 75%. Here is his College Football Pick for week 7 applying this method. 

North Carolina vs Miami (-7) 3:30 ET ABC TV

Each week in this space, I look to isolate a CFB STEAMROLLER GAME OF THE WEEK. Theoretical precedence for these winning selections can be found in an Article appearing on this site entitled Double Rushers and 200 Club Winners. These are teams who dominate their opponent at the point of attack, running and passing for 200 yards or double rushing their opponent, each of which affords historical ATS success of 75%. Last week, we recorded our 3rd consecutive victory in this column, when VA Tech STEAMROLLED this very North Carolina team, double rushing them 189-73 in a 34-3 victory.

The Tar Heels have often been victims of STEAMROLLING selections on this page this season. In the previous 2 years combined, the N. Carolina rush defense has allowed an average of 245/5.2. This in spite of the addition of respected DC Chizik to the Tar Heel staff. Even with the outstanding performance of QB Trubisky, there is still cause for concern for this 4-2 SU Tar Heel team, who was 11-3 SU last season, keyed by a 10-game winning streak. For, this season they have outrushed only Illinois. In every other game, they were outrushed by 134 yards vs. Georgia, 36 yards on this field vs. FCS James Madison, and then in the last 3 weeks (in league play) by a combined 721-224 to ACC foes Pitt, Florida St. and VA Tech. It is truly N. Carolina's “Achilles” Heel.”

Now, they must travel to Miami, where they will face an angry and motivated Miami team. The Hurricanes take the field at 4-1 SU ATS, following their first loss of the season to Florida St. on this field, when they let a comfortable halftime lead slip away and failed to send the game into OT with a missed extra point. For motivation, look no further than 59-21 revenge for a loss at Chapel Hill last year, keyed by a (-3) net TO margin (only lost the stats 487-425). There is precedence for this success, as the home team has covered the last 4 times these foes have met. Though 1st year Miami, FL HC Richt has the public perception of a conservative coach, note that he has covered 67% of the time in games where his team (mostly Georgia) won the game.

With revenge off a home loss, look for the bounce back by Miami, FL, behind QB Kaaya (injured shoulder/probable), as they STEAMROLL the Tar Heels into submission. I invite you to put the College Football ODDS in your favor and join me in my College Football PICK on Miami this afternoon.

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Free College Football Pick: Miami -7.5

Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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