Free Expert College Football Picks Against The Spread - Ole Miss vs Arkansas

Arkansas Razorbacks Players Celebrate

Thursday, October 13, 2016 12:51 PM GMT

Neither the Ole Miss Rebels nor the Arkansas Razorbacks can afford another SEC loss, and we've got a free NCAA football pick for their crucial Saturday night matchup.

It has already been a tough season for the Ole Miss Rebels and Arkansas Razorbacks, and it's only going to get worse for one of them after they meet Saturday in Fayetteville.

ESPN broadcasts events from the pig sty beginning at 7 PM (ET), BetOnline currently carrying the Rebels as 7½ point favorites after sending the game out a point lower. Some shops have pushed the spread up to -8½ while the total ranges from 66 to 67.

One of two SEC matchups between ranked schools, Ole Miss checking in No. 12/13 and Arkansas at No. 22, the teams are meeting for the 64th time with the Hogs owning a 34-28-1 advantage. Arkansas has won the last two, blanking the Rebels 30-0 when they met here in 2014 and taking a 53-52 overtime thriller in Oxford a year ago. The Razorbacks closed as 7½ point underdogs on the NCAA football odds in that one.

Backing the Razorbacks has sent college football bettors back to the pay window nine of the last 12 clashes, 'under' bettors cashing seven of the last 10.

Hogs Can't Afford 3rd Conference Loss

Mississippi (3-2 straight up & against the spread) took last week off, but there was still some excitement thanks to starting quarterback Chad Kelly getting into a bit of trouble watching his younger brother play in a high school game up in Buffalo. Kelly, who has been in trouble with the law before, should be suited up for this one, but there is still a chance head coach Hugh Freeze would discipline him and hold him out early.

The senior QB got off to a rough start in the Week 1 loss at Florida State by throwing three interceptions, but has played well with nine TDs and one pick since. Included in that stretch was a career-best 421 yards passing and three scores in the loss to Alabama.

Arkansas (4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS) probably wishes it had taken last week off after dropping its 2nd-straight SEC contest, this one a 49-30 setback to Alabama. Underdogs by 14½ in a game that was expected to see more defense from both sides, the Razorbacks let this one get away early as the Crimson Tide built a 35-10 lead in the first half thanks in part to Arkansas turnovers. They also lost starting linebacker Dre Greenlaw for at least a month with a foot injury, the homegrown sophomore currently second on the team in tackles.

Tough Schedules Still Await Both Schools

Both teams still have tough slates ahead of them and badly need to notch a dubya this week. Ole Miss already has three games against ranked teams behind them, winning just the one vs. Georgia, and still host No. 23 Auburn plus travel to meet No. 6 Texas A&M. This is the second of a 4-game stretch against ranked teams for the Razorbacks, losing to 'Bama last week with a trip to Auburn and home game vs. No. 18 Florida the next two Saturdays.

The weather looks fine for this one, clear skies and temps in the low-70s, upper-60s for most of the game. There is a brisk 15-18 mph south wind which could affect the kicking game. Considering how my free college football picks have gone recently, maybe the best choice is fade my play on the Razorbacks plus the points.

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Season: 11-15-2 (-4.80)

Free College Football Pick: Arkansas +8½
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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