College Football Week 2 Picks - Oregon vs. Nebraska

Oregon Ducks players during training

Friday, September 16, 2016 11:14 PM GMT

Each week I will search for an underdog of fewer than 7 points, which I feel has a combination of fundamental, technical and situational edges that are strong enough to make them an outstanding candidate to win this contest outright.

 

2016 Football Selections on this site continue their solid start. Through Wednesday, September 14th, NFL selections are 6-2 ATS, while College selections are 10-5 ATS. That is good for a combined mark of 16-7 ATS (70%) winners! Although selections may not continue at that torrid pace throughout the season, I assure you that, if you follow the advice embedded in my analyses this season, you will have a better chance to succeed in the pointspread wars. Always remember to shop for value and to use the valuable resources at this site, and the best sportsbooks, to put every edge in your favor this football season.

Now, let's review our Puppy Of The Week case with PAC 12 member, Oregon (a program that is well established) against a Nebraska team who, coached by Mike Riley in his 2nd year, is continuing to find their offensive identity after changing systems in Riley's initial year.

Oregon vs. Nebraska (-3) at 3:30 ET
There is little doubt that Nebraska is headed for a bounce-back season. Their 6-7 SU ATS season of last saw them transition to Riley's pro-style attack after years of running a power ground game and option offense. Though they were good enough to outgain their opponents 447-400 LY, outrushing them 180/4.7 to 110/3.8, they plummeted to sub .500 status because of 5 losses by 5 or fewer points. Yes, the Huskers will be better this year under Riley, especially with 15 RS. Early week returns saw victories over Fresno and Wyoming, as a favorite of 25 or more points, by combined margins of 95-27 points and 958-594 yards. But, one cannot ignore a +7 net TO margin for Nebraska in those games, who particularly profited from that mark in the 4th quarter last week vs. Wyoming, when they scored 28 unanswered points after leading just 24-17 entering that stanza. The question becomes are they able to translate that success into an outright victory against a quality opponent? History tells us that ain't gonna happen! While coaching at Oregon St., Riley was 0-7 SU against a more established Oregon program. In addition, Riley has a history of failing in this role. In the last 3 seasons at Oregon St. and Nebraska, Riley is 6-11 ATS coaching on his home field.Until Nebraska is able to prove they can defeat quality foes on this field (1-4 SU vs. BYU, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan St. and Iowa last year), we must look to fade them in the role of home chalk.

Are there concerns about Oregon? Yes! Particularly on the defensive side of the ball, where 4th year HC Helfrich (an offensive guru) saw the Ducks' defensive allowance slip to 37/485 last season. How quickly respected new DC Brady Hoke will turn around those fortunes will go a long way to the Ducks' success this season. To date, Oregon is 2-0 SU with victories of 25 over Cal-Davis and 18 over Virginia, but they have failed to cover those 2 contests because they allowed those teams to average 27/393. Concerns may also arise, as it is the first road start for Montana St. transfer, QB Dakota Prukop. If the first 2 home games against outmanned competition are a measuring stick, the Ducks' offense appears in the good form. Last week, they gained 300 or more yards both running and passing against Virginia. One of our real advantages in this contest is the long-term success of Oregon in today's role. There is little question that the explosive Oregon offense is tough to prepare for non-conference opponents. In the role of non-con underdog, Oregon covered at Michigan St. last year, part of their 4-0 ATS log as a road dog. That has extended their road success since the 2010 season to 25-3 SU, 9-1 SU recently and 19-3 ATS L5Y, including 8-1 ATS the past 2 seasons.

The wrong team favored, as Oregon wins this outright as our PUPPY OF THE WEEK. I invite you to put the College Football Odds in your favor and join me in my College Football Pick in Oregon today.

Free College Football Pick: Oregon +140
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes which offers a 50% Free Play Bonus!

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