College Football Predictions Against The Spread - #3 Louisville vs Marshall

Marshall Thundering Herd Players

Friday, September 23, 2016 1:17 PM GMT

Your patience from the first 3 weeks will now be rewarded, as we have increasingly more data to make the analysis. Not that it has been bad so far, our capper gives you a free college football pick.

Louisville (-26) at Marshall 8:00 ET CBC TV

Each week in this space, I isolate a PERCEPTION/REALITY GAME in which there is an overreaction by the linemaker and public to the recent performance of one or both of these teams. In this case, it is the latter, as the dichotomous performance of both Louisville and Marshall last Saturday has set up huge value for the Thundering Herd. Even without last Saturday's results, this would have been a solid situational play on Marshall, as they catch Louisville in this 'mother of all sandwich games' between Florida St. and Clemson.

Louisville proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that both they and QB Jackson were FO'REAL! Romps of Charlotte and Syracuse by combined scores of 132-42 and yardage edges of 1,508-622 had caught the public's attention. But, they clearly proved they were FO'REAL. With the 63-20 wipeout of No. 2 ranked, Florida St. last Saturday, they led virtually wire-to-wire, they outgained Florida St. 530-284, and thoroughly embarrassed the Seminoles (but that is a story we will talk about in Fall of 2017). Now, the ‘Ville is a Top 5 team, who has covered their 3 contests by 83 points. With Clemson dead ahead, that kind of performance will get you overrated!

Adding to our value in this game is the Marshall meltdown of last week. Leading Akron by 21-7 at the end of the 1st quarter, it looked like the Herd was going to thunder their way to yet another home field victory, as they did in their 62-0 Game 1 bashing of Morgan St. But with just 4 starters returning on the defensive side, it was clear the Zips would have a chance to score some points. Aided by a (-3) net TO margin for Marshall, Akron left Huntington with a 65-38 victory DESPITE BEING OUTGAINED 560-524. That loss, combined with the Louisville success, has left us with a line that is amazingly 3 TDs more than where it would have been on opening day.

With dichotomous results from both teams fueling this value, we confidently step in with one of the most contrary plays of the week on a Marshall team, who will have a huge emotional and psychological edge today, along with a home field where they are 9-0 ATS as a home underdog of a TD or more. I invite you to put the College Football odds in your favor and join me on my College Football Pick on Marshall tonight.

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Free College Football Pick: Marshall +27
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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