Strangely enough, our ATS college football playoffs Shakeups & CFB picks directly coincide with the AP rankings and possible shakeups this weekend
The 2016/2017 College football bowl season is just around the bend and as long as we don't see a Big-10 shake up with Penn State trouncing Wisconsin, the CFB Playoffs Chic-Fil-A Peach Bowl and Playstation Fiesta Bowl outlook should be: #1 Alabama vs. #4 Washington and #2 Ohio State vs. #3 Clemson, respectively.
But we are not here to talk about the actual bowl projections. It's a dead horse that has already been beaten like an Indian rug by a large old woman with a heavy broom. We're going to take a look at how the college football playoffs and bowl games would play out if they were played by the top ATS teams as we go into Week 14 of NCAAF.
ATS Peach Bowl & ATS Fiesta Bowl
Four teams stand out clearly as the best teams against the spread (thus far in 2016) in all of the college football:
1. Temple Owls 11-1
2. Colorado 10-2
3. Colorado State 10-2
4. Wisconsin 9-2-1
It's Not All Peachy Just Yet!
#1 ATS Temple would head into the Chic-Fil-A Peach Bowl vs. A tough Wisconsin team barring a big shake-up where they fail to cover +3.5 vs Navy –who is 5-1-0 against the spread this season when installed as favorites and also ranked #19 nationally— and Colorado upsetting #4 Washington ATS at +8, which could very well happen. If both of these things happened, Colorado would slide in as the TOP ATS team in the country.
Much like the Huskies in the legitimate NCAAF bowl projections, the Wisconsin Badgers aren't necessarily safe in their #4 ATS spot, as Penn State could up-root them by covering the number at +2.5 and open the door for either Auburn (9-3-0 ATS) or the Nittany Lions themselves (8-3-1 ATS –then 9-3-1)! The verdict is still out on who's to be at the #4 ATS position if this were to happen, Auburn's strength of schedule is the 7th toughest in the nation, but Penn State has had no cup cake season at 14th and an extra game to boot—this would be a tough vote for the committee.
Will Navy Oust The Owls to Shake Up Our Projections?
Loads of money is coming in on Navy. 91% of the money-line cash is going towards the Mid-Shipmen as well as 87% of the money bet against the spread. Temple QB, Phillip Walker will have his hands full, as he is coming into this banged up with 'Questionable' status, but is still expected to play. The Mid-Shipment have been absolutely rolling their opponents but Temple is a 'Covering Machine' –also 4-0
against the spread as underdogs –and they have their defense (just 17.83 points allowed per game) to thank for much their ATS success.
Wisconsin Not Out Of The Woods Yet
Unfortunately for the Badgers, they are only 1-4 against the Nittany Lions both straight up and against the Spread! Both teams are coming off of 5 straight wins but the Lions are 5-0 ATS as well. Look for this to be a tight game. Penn State has the more prolific offense, putting up nearly 37 points per game, but Wisconsin is battle hardened with the 5th toughest schedule in the nation and still allowing just under two touchdowns per game defensively. There is a lot of money going in Wisconsin –about 75% of the public … which, with nature of this game makes me a little nervous backing Wisky ATS.
The ATS Fiesta Bowl: Who'll Be Invited To The Party?
Colorado takes the #2 ATS spot in the country over their instate counterpart Colorado State because of their MUCH tougher schedule. However, the Bulldogs' #3 ATS Ranking is a bit more secure than the Buffaloes maintaining #2 … because the Huskies could do some Buffalo hunting on Friday and have them swapping places with Wisconsin at #4 ATS.
Can Colorado Buffaloes Put The Washington Huskies Back in Their Kennel?
Colorado has played tough all year, but they are outmatched here. The point differential favors UW both offensively and defensively … the Dub offense dropping 10 more points per game on their foes! Washington has also not only beaten the Buffaloes 6 out of the last 7 times they've played. They have also covered the number as many times (6-1 ATS vs. Colorado). The Huskies are going to play HARD at home to try and show the committee that they belong in that #4 spot. So look for UW to Cover the number and Take Colorado down a notch in their 'ATS Playoff Position'!
After Week 14 The Best ATS Teams Playoffs Could Look Like This:
1. Temple Owls 12-1
2. Wisconsin 10-2-1
3. Colorado State 10-2
4. Colorado 10-3
Other ATS Bowl Ready Teams To Tail – Wyoming 5-1 ATS as Dog (+7 vs. SDST This Saturday)
The Shake-up CFB Picks
With the exception of the Colorado vs. Washington game, we have a couple of potential grudge matches. So, we are going to create a 3-team Teaser and take Temple at +9.5, reverse the number on Wisconsin and get them with more than a field goal to spare at +3.5 and make our lives easier with the Huskies at –2 … just in case Colorado gets ideas on playing the spoiler –they are 4-0 ATS as dogs this season.
College Football Pick | 3-Team Teaser Temple +9.5, Wisconsin +3.5, Washington -2