College Football Picks - Best Value O/U Bets Offered In Early Saturday Action

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Player Catches Football

Friday, September 30, 2016 9:19 PM GMT

Two games with totals rounding the 70 points are in the cards for Saturday morning. Which one is worth tailing as a shootout, and which one is a false indicator? Read as our College Football handicapper makes his free picks.

 

 

My results last week bitch slapped me, hard, as fate seemed to say, It's not that easy, Mark. But that's ok as we will keep grinding away this College Football season and taking advantage of lines with value. I believe I have found two such lines on this week's card, so here we go.

Notre Dame vs Syracuse

Notre Dame boosters have to be in a state of panic right now after losing to the Duke Blue Devils at home to take their overall record to 1-3 on the season. The Fighting Irish have struggled against teams with competent passing attacks so far on the season, allowing a 64% completion percentage, which is near the bottom of FBS standings. In this game they match up with the Syracuse Orange, who are also very strong in the passing game to the tune of 371.8 yards per game, which is 6th in the nation. The Orange's 66.1% completion percentage and is certainly in play here.

So why the under call? Well, even though Syracuse racks up a bunch of yards through the air, they have only scored 9 touchdowns passing on the year. And to go with that, their anemic running offense has scored just 3 touchdowns on the ground. As such, the Orange make a lot of noise between the 20's, but have a hard time punching in the rock. Notre Dame's offensive numbers are skewed by the first game of the season, where they put up 47 points against Texas.

Being that this game is at a neutral site at MetLife Stadium, I also see a negative effect on the offenses for at least part of the action. This total will require one team to reach the 40's on offense, and I just don't trust either one to do it. Take the Under here as one of your Saturday morning College Football picks.

Free College Football Pick: Under 75
Best Line Offered:
at BetOnline

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Texas vs Oklahoma State

As much as I'd like to say, 'see above Texas allowed Notre Dame to score 47 points on them', there is a little bit more to this pick – although not much. I got burned last weekend backing Oklahoma State on the Over against Baylor, but I am sticking to my guns this week. Especially against the Texas Longhorns, who have given up 34.7 points per game.

Last year's game was a bit of an anomaly, as the Longhorns only passed for 119 yards, yet scored 27 points in the game while losing 30-27. That's just not going to happen again this year with Texas averaging 262 yards per game passing and Oklahoma State giving up 272 yards per game in the air. It looks like the Longhorns have dodged a bullet too, as quarterback Shane Buechele should be available after sustaining an injury against Cal. This should be an old-fashioned shootout, so take the Over at 70.5 at BookMaker while you can.

2016 College Football Record: 12-12-1, -1.30 Units

Free College Football Pick: Over 70.5
Best Line Offered: at BookMaker

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