College Football Pick - Michigan State Spartans vs Penn State Nittany Lions

Michigan State Spartans

Friday, November 25, 2016 4:05 PM GMT

Expert Capper Joe Gavazzi takes a look into the Spartans and Nittany Lions matchup this Saturday looking for some betting value for his College Football Pick. Here are his thoughts on this game.

Michigan State vs Penn State (-12) 3:30 PM EST

In my weekly analysis of CFB, I include an ICE game. This is a team that operates with (I) Intensity, (C) Conviction and operates with near flawless (E) Execution. Last week's selection was fundamentally sound Kansas State in their 42-21 trouncing of Baylor. This week, we turn to the Michigan State Spartans one of the most fundamentally sound teams in the nation under 10th year HC Dantonio.

The Michigan State program was among the best in football each of the last 3 seasons with a combined record of 36-5 and Playoff appearance against Alabama in the Final Four last year. But since their 12-1 SU start in 2015, beginning with the 38-0 smashing by Alabama in the Playoffs, this team has gone 3-10 SU, 4-8 ATS. With no Bowl Bid on the horizon, for the first time in a decade, Dantonio summoned life to a Spartans team that had just 9 RS at the start of the year. Last week against #2 ranked Ohio State, in a game where the Spartans won the yardage, 334-315, Sparty was just a missed 2 point conversion away from upsetting the Buckeyes in a 17-16 loss. Today, he will inspire his team in their “Bowl Game of the Year” as he looks to take down a Penn State team who has made one of the biggest in-season turnarounds of any squad in the CFB landscape.

In mid-October, there were rumors that third year HC Franklin had his job on the line. His Lions were hosting highly ranked Ohio State in a “Saturday Night Whiteout”. Trailing by double digits in the 2nd half, Penn State rallied to steal the game 24-21, with a blocked FG returned for a TD knocking the Buckeyes from the ranks of the unbeaten. Buoyed by that victory, Penn State now enters the final week of the regular season on a run of 7-0 SU, 6-0 ATS. If you review my article this week entitled “With Need You Bleed”, you will see why you are taking an immense risk if you back the favorite in this contest. For the Nittany Lion is playing with immense pressure being in a must-win situation to reach the Big 10 Title Game and have a chance at the Final Four.

Further precedence for this selection comes from the history book which shows that Sparty has won this match-up in each of the meetings between Dantonio and Franklin by margins of 55-16 and 34-10. That's a lot of ground for Penn State to make up. The icing on the cake comes with the fact that Dantonio is now 15-2 ATS as an underdog including a perfect 3-0 ATS this year. I invite you to put the College Football ODDS in your favor and join me in my College Football PICK on Michigan St. this afternoon.

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Free College Football Pick: Michigan St. +12.5

Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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