College Football Expert Picks The Under For Florida St. vs Miami

Mark Richt Talks To Player

Tuesday, October 4, 2016 5:05 PM GMT

New head coach Mark Richt seeks his 150th career win as No. 10 Miami host No. 21 Florida State at Hard Rock Stadium in Coral Gables Saturday night. Prediction and bet preview this way.

Florida State Seminoles (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS)

The Seminoles are winners of six straight against the Hurricanes, but have not kicked off the underdogs since head coach Jimbo Fisher's first year in charge (2010). A 45-17 win as 6-point pups that year started the streak. The victory is just one of two as underdogs Fisher has picked up in eight attempts in charge of Florida State.

Something is seriously wrong with the Florida State defense. Against four FBS opponents this season, it's allowing 42.2 points per game, 12.1 more per game then the betting market predicts. Out of Power 5 teams, its 6.98 yards allowed per play and 9.4 yielded through the air rank dead last.

Florida State also likes to beat up on itself. Fisher's men rank No. 124 in the FBS in penalty yards per game, compiling 45 flags for a loss of 431 yards to begin the year.

Freshman quarterback Deondre Francois is producing on the ground more. He has rushed for 107 yards and two scores on 20 carries in the last two games.

The OVER is 9-1 in Florida State's last 10 as a road dog in ACC play.

Miami Hurricanes (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS)

Unlike the Seminoles, the Hurricanes defense is rolling. It's holding FBS foes to 13.7 points per game, 7.9 fewer per contest then projected. The unit has not faced an offense up to Florida State's caliber though with games against Florida Atlantic, App. State, and Georgia Tech.

Offensively, the ‘Canes find 7.8 yards per play, third best nationally. Junior quarterback Brad Kaaya is averaging 9.8 yards per passing attempt and owns a 8:3 TD:INT ratio. He's had a lot of time in the pocket. The Miami O-line has given up two sacks all season. The D-line, for what it's worth, leads the country with a 15.2 sack percentage.

Along with Boise State, Miami is the only FBS team in the nation to not trail in any game this season.

Final Analysis

This is a must-win game for Florida State if they hope to vie for the ACC title. Miami has the edge in our numbers, but the value here is likely in the total. Florida State's offense is mediocre, and the defense darn right bad. Expect the latter to improve against its rivals. Both head coaches will look run-first when moving the ball. Four of the last five meetings have stayed UNDER the total with a combined score of 51.8 points on average. Penalties will be aplenty in this matchup, and a sloppy affair will help keep the score down. UNDER 65.5 is the college football pick.

SBR YTD record: 131-92-6 (avg. odds -104); NCAAF 2016-17: 14-17 (avg. odds -109)

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Free College Football Pick: UNDER 66
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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