Week 9 in college football is in the rearview mirror. Let’s check out some of the highlights and lowlights that defined our college football picks this past weekend.
Wrong Way Conversion Leads to Bad Beat
I know a guy who knows a guy, who is a smart shopper and keeps accounts at several of the premier offshore sportsbooks. He pounced on an early line of under 54 in the Michigan/Michigan State game and then saw the total plummet to 50 at kickoff and smartly bet over, creating a healthy four-point middle in his college football picks.
Fast forward to Michigan State scoring a touchdown with only one second left in the game, cutting the Wolverine's lead to 30-23. He is now sitting with the perfect 'middle', meaning he wins over 50 and under 54, but the extra point attempt awaits. He resigns himself to the fact that he will more than likely win the over 50 but push (tie) the under 54 if the attempt is successful. But the Spartans mystifyingly decided to attempt the two-point conversion and much to his delight, the play is botched. Yet miraculously the Wolverines recover the fumble and bring it 75 yards for two points of their own.
Final score: Michigan 32-Michigan State 23. Fifty-five combined points, causing our arbitrage entrepreneur to lose the under wager of 54 and wind up paying the vig after winning over 50. Bad beats – they happen…especially to this guy!
Dog Day Afternoon
If you played the pups in Top 25 action in your college football picks then you likely had a rewarding weekend. Let's start with the aforementioned Michigan State Spartans keeping within the generous 24 ½ point head start that the oddsmakers extended to them. It proved to be an easy cover when the Spartans hung around in a 32-23 loss but kept Michigan undefeated and in the hunt for a national championship title.
The No. 12 ranked Florida State Seminoles eked out a cover as five-point home dogs over third-ranked Clemson in a 37-34 nail-biter while 17th ranked Utah kept pace, and within the number, as 10-point home dogs to No. 4 ranked Washington in their 31-24 setback.
Unranked Virginia almost pulled off the shocker of the season when they pulled to within one of No.3 ranked Louisville with little more than a minute to play, yet fell 32-25 but easily covered the 32-point spread. Meanwhile, No. 6 ranked Ohio State had to hold on for dear left against their 26-point underdog adversary Northwestern, in their 24-20 battle at Ohio Stadium.
One of the biggest shakeups, though the college football odds makers merely favored the 8th ranked visiting Baylor Bears by only 3 ½, was their defeat to the unranked Longhorns in Texas by the score of 35-34. Five-point road chalk and 10th ranked West Virginia was upended by their hosts Oklahoma State by the score of 37-20.
Another in a dizzying array of upsets and underdog covers occurred when the Volunteers of Tennessee lost 24-21 to their hosts from South Carolina as 15-point road favorites. Finally, it was the No. 13 Boise State dropping a 30-28 struggle to 15-point home dog Wyoming.
Wow, what a Saturday slate for longshot money line and points spread underdogs. It was a dog day afternoon and evening indeed this past weekend!