College Football Betting Pick ATS - Week 10 - Texas vs Texas Tech

Patrick Mahomes

Thursday, November 3, 2016 10:25 PM GMT

Ross Benjamin is looking to continue his great 70% ATS record on his college football picks with his betting preview of the clash between Texas & Texas Tech. Read on for his prediction.

Texas Tech vs. Texas Betting Line and Prediction

Texas Tech will host Texas on Saturday at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock. There's a scheduled Noon ET kickoff, and the game will be televised by Fox Sports1. Texas Tech won last year's meeting with Texas by a score of 48-45. It was the first time in its last 6 tries that Texas Tech beat Texas.

The current (11/3) college football betting odds at BetOnline.com has Texas as a 3.5-point road favorite. BetOnline is presently offering new customers 50% cash bonuses on all initial deposits of up to $300.

Dynamic Red Raiders Offense

Texas Tech's offense is, and has been, one of the most explosive in college football for better than a decade now. Regarding this season, they're #1 in total offense with an average of 603.4 yards per game. Most of that yardage comes through the air.

The Red Raiders passing attack leads the country by averaging a mammoth 500.6 yards per game. The catalyst of that aerial attack is junior quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He's thrown for 3519 yards, completed 67.7% of his attempts, tossed for 28 touchdowns, and has only been intercepted 7 times. Mahomes has also ran for 276 yards and 10 touchdowns as well. It must be noted, Mahomes left the Red Raiders last game due to a shoulder injury, and didn't return. Nevertheless, he's listed as probable for Saturday's showdown with Texas.

Speaking of Texas, they're #24 in total offense (487.8 YPG), and #30 in scoring (36.0 PPG). True freshmen quarterback Shane Buechele has been the real deal for Texas this season, throwing for 2013 yards, and has 17 passes for touchdowns against just 6 picks.

Patrick Maholmes

Horrible Defenses

Both team's defensive units rank near the bottom statistically from a national perspective. Texas Tech is #126 and allows 518.4 yards per game. The Red Raiders are also giving up 41.4 points per game, and that ranks #123 nationally.

Texas' stop unit isn't nearly as bad, but they're poor nonetheless. The Longhorns are #112 in total defense at 462.6 yards per game, and #105 in scoring by allowing 32.8 points per contest. As a matter of fact, Texas has allowed 45 points or more in 4 of their 8 games played.

Unbeaten College Football Betting Angle

Texas Tech is coming off a 27-24 over Kansas State last Saturday, and they did so as a 10.0-point road underdog. Texas upset then #6 Baylor 35-34 this past Saturday as a 3.5-point home underdog.

Any conference home underdog (Texas Tech), coming off an away underdog straight up win by 24 points or less, versus an opponent (Texas) that's not undefeated, and is coming off a home underdog straight up win, resulted in those home underdogs going 18-0 ATS. If those teams were a home underdog of 7.5 or less, they went an eye-opening 12-1 straight up as well.

This betting angle is straightforward, and far from coincidental. I'll be going with the home underdog for one of my college football week 10 predictions.

Free College Football Pick: Texas Tech +3.5

Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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