College Football Against The Spread Predictions - Mississippi St. vs Kentucky

Marquiss Spencer Of Mississippi St.

Wednesday, October 19, 2016 1:55 PM GMT

This article isolates the play of Mississippi St. in their quest for a 7th consecutive bowl bid under HC Mullen. But before I can tell you that story, let’s take a look at today’s opponent the Kentucky Wildcats.  

Mississippi State (-3) vs Kentucky 7:30 PM ET

Each week in this space, I ask the question Faux or Fo'Real? I do this in an effort to determine whether the recent results of one or both of these teams is Faux (false) or Fo'Real (true).

For starters, this has been a poor role for the Wildcats under 4th year HC Mark Stoops. The Wildcats are on a 4+ year run of just 10-26 ATS as underdog including only 4-14 ATS as home dog. The fact that the Wildcats have covered 4 consecutive games keeps this line “Fo'real”. Kentucky football faithful may consider that at 3-3 SU, the Wildcats would have a chance for their first bowl bid in 6 years including 1st ever under Stoops who had a record of 12-24 SU entering this season in Lexington. Reality, however, is that with 5 games remaining in which they will be notable underdogs, their chances of a bowl are slim. On their behalf, is one of my favorite CFB situations featuring rested homers following a victory and playing with revenge. But last year's 42-16 loss to Mississippi State is part of Bulldog dominance rather than a viable revenge option.

For Mississippi State has won the last 4 meetings against Kentucky by scores of 42-16, 45-31, 28-22 and 27-14 (scores in reverse order). That's an average margin of victory of 14 points with an average line that finds Mississippi State to be a 12 point favorite. For Miss State bowl hopes, this game is an absolute must. Losses at LSU to Auburn and last week at BYU were acceptable. The opening day home loss to South Alabama (while adjusting to the loss of last year's QB Dak Prescott) may prove to be a crushing blow. At 2-4 SU with Texas A&M, Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss to close the season, THIS GAME IS ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL if Miss State is to reach their 7th consecutive bowl game under 8th year HC Mullen. Look for plenty of hunger on the part of series dominator Mississippi State who has a record of 8-2 ATS on the conference road of late. A fired up defense will take advantage of a Kentucky team who already has 16 giveaways for the season. In the final analysis, we will lay a value price of only 2 ½ points with series dominator Mississippi State as they prove they are Fo'real!

I invite you to put the College Football ODDS in your favor and join me in my College Football PICKS on Mississippi State.

Remember to drop by SBR's list of the best-ranked bonuses, and find out which of the top sportsbooks is offering the top rated sportsbooks.

Free College Football Picks: Mississippi St. -3

Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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