Capper Presents Best Bets Against In The Spread College Football Week 7

Texas Longhorns QB Scrambling

Thursday, October 13, 2016 3:15 PM GMT

Expert handicapper Matthew Jordan provides us with his very own college football picks on the best value odds for week 7 of action. He found three lines that have "money" written all over them.

Because the LSU-Florida game was postponed after I wrote my top against the spread picks for Week 6 here at SBR, I was just 1-1 ATS last week. Here are three games this Saturday I feel pretty good about with Intertops college football odds.

No. 24 Western Michigan vs Akron +11.5

A 3:30 p.m. ET start for this Mid-American Conference game. One of the hottest coaches in the country right now is the second-youngest one at an FBS school, Western Michigan's P.J. Fleck. When the now-35-year-old took over the WMU program it was one of the worst in the country. He instituted a 'Row The Boat' motto and the Broncos have gone from 1-11 in Fleck's first season in 2013 to the first AP ranking in school history this week. Western is essentially the Big Ten champion of the state of Illinois as it has wins over Illinois and Northwestern out of conference and is 6-0 for the first time since 1941. Fleck is the MAC's highest-paid coach but it still pales in comparison to what a Power 5 program could offer and he'll get offers -- and some great ones if WMU somehow gets to a New Year's Six bowl game as the top-ranked Group of 5 school in the country. Last week, WMU beat Northern Illinois, which has appeared in the past six MAC title games, 45-30. The Broncos are averaging 44.8 points per game and have a receiver in Corey Davis who could well be a first-round NFL draft pick in 2017. WMU is also the only team in Division I without a turnover.

While Western is tied for the MAC West lead, Akron (4-2, 2-0) is atop the MAC East. The Zips also can score (37.7 ppg), but they give up a ton (33.5 ppg). Akron has one win all time vs. a ranked team. It hasn't beaten Western since 1996, but the teams don't play every year.

NCAAF Free Pick: Western Michigan. The Broncos are 13-3 ATS in their past 16 road games. Akron is 3-8 ATS in its past 11 October games.

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Northwestern vs Michigan State -4

Also a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff for this Big Ten matchup. The Wildcats and Spartans are the two most disappointing teams in the conference with 2-3 overall records. Michigan State is of course the defending Big Ten champion, but it lost a ton of talent off that team, led by three-year starting quarterback Connor Cook. He has been hugely missed as Sparty is on a three-game losing streak and averaging just 21.0 points per game on the season, which is 113th nationally. Coach Mark Dantonio has opened up the QB competition this week between Tyler O'Connor, who had been starting, Damion Terry and freshman Brian Lewerke. O'Connor, a senior, has completed 60.9 percent of his passes for 976 yards, eight TDs, five picks and been sacked 10 times. Terry replaced him in last Saturday's 31-14 loss to BYU and was 6-for-10 for 63 yards and a pick. Lewerke has just taken a few snaps. Dantonio might not announce his guy until Friday.

Northwestern started the season with embarrassing home losses to non-Power 5 schools Western Michigan and Illinois State but has played better after. It has been off since winning at Iowa, the reigning Big Ten West champion, 38-31 on Oct. 1. NU's best offensive player has been receiver Austin Carr, who leads the Big Ten in receptions (32), receiving yards (465) and TDs (6). He had three TD catches vs. Iowa. MSU beat Northwestern 30-6 in the most recent meeting in 2013.

NCAAF Free Pick: Michigan State. NU is 2-5 ATS in its past seven after an ATS win.

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Iowa State vs Texas -13

It's a 7 p.m. ET Big 12 game. I wrote an in-depth preview of Texas' Red River Rivalry game vs. No. 20 Oklahoma in Dallas last week and said that the Longhorns wouldn't pull the upset but to take the 10 points on Texas and go 'over' the total of 73. A double win there as UT lost 45-40. Alas, there's really no such thing as a good loss right now for embattled Texas coach Charlie Strong as it was his team's third in a row. Strong had demoted his defensive coordinator last week and taken over the calls on that side of the ball but it didn't help as Texas allowed at least 45 points for the fourth time in five games this year. Oklahoma had 672 total yards in the highest-scoring game in the history of the rivalry. I see no way that Strong returns in 2017 now. It's amazing how much better Texas is on offense this year but worse on defense.

Iowa State is again the second-worst team in the Big 12 behind Kansas. The Cyclones' lone win this season was over a bad San Jose State team out of conference. But ISU has lost by just a touchdown the past two weeks to very good Baylor and Oklahoma State teams. Iowa State allows 33.5 points this season. Texas gives up 39.6. The difference is that UT's offense is very good and Iowa State's not so much.

NCAAF Free Pick: This will be a payback game for Texas, which lost 24-0 in Ames last year. Give the points. Texas is 5-1 ATS in its past six at home.

Remember to drop by SBR's list of the best-ranked bonuses, and find out which of the top sportsbooks is offering the top rated sportsbooks.

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