Big 12 College Football Pick: Baylor Skid To Continue At Oklahoma

Oklahoma Sooners Quarterback

Tuesday, November 8, 2016 3:16 PM GMT

The Big 12 is likely to miss the College Football Playoff again, but No. 9 Oklahoma still holds out hope as the Sooners prep to host No. 25 Baylor as a double-digit favorite with a big total of 80 on college football odds.

Oh, what might have been for both the Baylor Bears and Oklahoma Sooners. In the case of Baylor, losses in the past two games have cost the Bears a shot at the national championship after they had risen to as high as No. 6 in the USA Today Coaches' Poll just two short weeks ago. It was early defeats that likely spelled doom for Oklahoma's playoff hopes.

It has been that kind of season for the Big 12 overall and has probably doomed the conference from having a rep in the College Football Playoff for the second time in three seasons. The Sooners still believe they have a chance if they can close strong with three wins, beginning this week against the Bears in a noon (ET) boot in Norman.

Current numbers posted at sportsbooks believe Oklahoma will at least get the first of those three victories. BetOnline sent the Sooners out at -16, that spread adjusting down to -14.5 at one point and settling on -15.5 Tuesday morning. The 80-point total is second on the board only to another Big 12 contest, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.

Road Teams Leave Bettors Happy In Series

Though the Bears have made headway in this rivalry recently, it's still a lopsided 22-3 in Oklahoma's favor. The Sooners won the first 15 Big 12 encounters with Baylor, many of those decisions as one-sided as the rivalry presently stands. All three wins for the Bears have come in the last five meetings, including their only victory in Norman two years ago when they spanked OU 48-14 as 5.5-point underdogs on the NCAA football odds.

Oklahoma paid the Bears back last year in Waco, knocking then-No. 6 and undefeated Baylor out with a 44-34 decision. The Sooners rolled up more than 500 yards of offense and controlled the clock while taking advantage of three Baylor turnovers.

Road teams have been the way to bet this one for more than a decade now, with visitors cashing in 13 of the last 16 clashes. The 'over' has also been a winner lately, with a 6-3 O/U the last nine and totals splitting the past four in Norman.

Bears On Skid, Sooners Riding Streak

Baylor (6-2 SU, 2-6 ATS) was cruising along with a perfect mark until two weeks ago when the Bears went to Austin and lost 35-34 to Texas as 3-point chalk. It wasn't close at all last Saturday at home where the Bears were TD favorites vs. TCU and the Horned Frogs putting a 62-22 beating on Baylor. TCU ran for 431 yards in the contest and held the ball more than 11 minutes longer than Baylor.

Oklahoma (7-2 SU, 3-6 ATS) is looking for its seventh straight win, and the Sooners have had some close calls during the streak. Bob Stoops' side will get a little extra rest for this one after playing last Thursday, an eventual 34-24 win at Iowa State in a game that was close before the Sooners exploded for 14 points in the last four minutes of the first half. They'll get leading rusher Joe Mixon back after a one-game suspension, which is good news with Samaje Perine (leg) likely to miss his fourth consecutive game.

The thermometer is expected to climb into the low-60s during the game with cloudy skies and a light breeze. I'm expecting a Sooners victory, though I'm not willing to lay that many points for my free college football pick and will instead play the low side of the total.

NCAAF Free Pick: 'Under' 80

Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

Season: 20-18-3 (+0.90)

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