Against The Spread College Football Picks - Week 7 Biggest Line Moves

Hawaii Warriors Picks

Wednesday, October 12, 2016 8:11 PM GMT

I hit on two of three NCAAF picks on the biggest spread moves in Week 6 of college football, and I believe  would have been 3-for-3 if Notre Dame-NC State wasn't played in a hurricane. Here are the three top Week 7 line moves.

Bowling Green vs Toledo -31

This is currently the third-biggest spread of the week and Toledo opened at -25.5 for the Mid-American Conference matchup and Battle of I-75 across the College Football Odds. The Falcons (1-5, 0-2 MAC) were in the biggest line moves story last week as they opened as 14.5-point underdogs at Ohio University and were at +11.5 when I wrote the preview. I took Bowling Green and it lost only 30-24. It was a fortunate cover as Bowling Green was down 30-10 late in third quarter but managed to cover on a 37-yard TD pass from James Morgan to Scott Miller with 1:24 left. That drive came after Ohio missed a 38-yard field goal. The Falcons, who turned it over four times, weren't able to recover the onside kick after the touchdown.

Toledo (4-1, 1-0) hasn't missed Coach Matt Campbell too much after he left for Iowa State last year. The Rockets won 35-20 at Eastern Michigan last week. Logan Woodside threw four touchdown passes, including the clinching score to Corey Jones from 12 yards out with 2:37 to go. Woodside has 20 touchdown passes and is second in the nation in passing efficiency. Toledo has scored at least 31 points in each of the first five games this season and ranks 10th nationally in scoring. The Rockets have won six consecutive games against Bowling Green so their seniors have a chance to finish 4-0 against their rivals. Last season it was 44-28.

NCAAF Free Pick: No question that Toledo will win on homecoming, but that's too many points to give in a rivalry game. BGSU is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 MAC games. You will find the best line for this game at Bookmaker.

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UNLV vs Hawaii -9

The Rainbow Warriors opened as 5-point favorites for this Mountain West game. Certainly one of the better coaching jobs in the country this season has been done by first-year Hawaii coach Nick Rolovich, a former UH quarterback. Hawaii (3-3, 2-0) is in first place in the conference's West Division and already matched last season's win total with a 34-17 victory at San Jose State last week. Dru Brown threw for two scores and ran for another in his second game since taking over as the starting QB. He has completed 39 of 51 passes (76.5 percent) for 509 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions in his first two career starts. It was Hawaii's first win in its last 10 games away from Aloha Stadium. A win here would give UH three straight for the first time since the 2010 season, which was the last time Hawaii went 3-0 to start league play (won first five WAC games).

UNLV (2-4, 1-1) lost 26-7 last Saturday and preseason Mountain West favorite San Diego State. The Rebels had just 122 yards and all of 9 yards passing on 2-for-13 completions. UNLV's only touchdown occurred on a fumble return. Entering the game, UNLV was second in the Mountain West in scoring and ninth nationally in rushing. But it's among the nation's worst passing teams.

NCAAF Free Pick: It's homecoming at Hawaii and the home team has won the past seven in the series. For my college football pick, I suggest that you give the points here. UH is 4-1 ATS in its past five after a win.

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No. 10 Nebraska vs Indiana +3.5

The Cornhuskers opened as 6.5-point favorites for this Big Ten game. NU (5-0, 2-0) is one of four AP Top-10 teams from the conference this week. That's a first for the Big Ten since the 1999 preseason poll. The last time the Big Ten had four AP Top-10 teams during the season was Oct. 24, 1960. The Huskers are the only Big Ten West team without a conference loss, were on the bye last week and come off a 31-16 win over Illinois on Oct. 1. Tailback Terrell Newby ran for 113 of his 140 yards and scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter when the Cornhuskers outscored the Illini 21-0.

Nebraska has outscored its five opponents 78-6 in the fourth quarter this season. NU quarterback Tommy Armstrong, who has been playing college football for about a decade it seems, leads the Big Ten in total offense (288.8 ypg). Armstrong says he probably wouldn't have been able to play last week had the Huskers been scheduled as he's dealing with an ankle injury but will go here. The team's leading receiver, Alonzo Moore, missed the Illinois game but is likely to return. Second-leading rusher Devine Ozigbo and second-leading receiver Jordan Westerkamp are both doubtful. Indiana QB Richard Lagow is No. 2 in the league in total offense (285.8 ypg) and No. 1 in passing (292.0 ypg). Indiana (3-2, 1-1) lost 38-17 at No. 2 Ohio State last week. IU was only down seven late in the third quarter. Lagow threw for 185 yards and two scores. Indiana hasn't beaten a Top-10 team since 1987. This is the first meeting between Indiana and Nebraska since the Huskers joined the Big Ten.

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NCAAF Free Pick: No doubt this line has moved due to all the Nebraska injuries, but give the points. The Huskers are 12-3 ATS in their past 15 road games.

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