The 2011 NHL playoffs get underway today and in one of the more
exciting matchups the New York Rangers take on the Washington Capitals. This is
a spot where I like the underdog.
Record 15-12 making 5.02 units
NHL free pick on the NY
Rangers as they take on the Washington Capitals in first game of the first
round of the NHL playoffs.
Although this is the eighth seed Rangers going up against the top
seed Capitals, the potential for upset is quite high in this first round
My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a
reasonable probability that the New York Rangers will win Game 1 of this seven game
The Rangers defense and goal tending will be the dominant reason
they win tonight. The simulator shows a high probability that the Washington Capitals will
not score more than two goals in this game.
On past games where the Rangers have held an opponent to just two
goals they have posted a 34-8 mark making 29 units in profits per one unit
wagered this season, 104-34 making 69.8 units per one unit wagered spanning the
past three seasons, and 397-104 making 309.2 units in profits per one unit
wagered since 1996.
Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a
record of 59-23 making 37.7 units for 72% winners since 1996. This system has
produced a perfect 3-0 record this season. Play on any team against the money line off
a home win by two goals or more facing an opponent after a low scoring road
game where both teams scored one goal or less.
This system is a bit of a variation of the one above and has
produced an exceptional record of 35-13 ATS for 73% winners since 1996. This
system is an impressive 6-1 making 4.2 units spanning the last five full
on any team against the money line off a home blowout win by three goals or
more facing an opponent after a low scoring road game where both teams scored
one goal or less.
Way to Shut Down Ovechkin
last year the eight seed Montreal Canadiens held Ovechkin to just one assist
over the final two games of the series. It is reasonable to say that Montreal
provided a blue print to the rest of league as Ovechkin has produced career
lows in goals and scoring this season. During one stretch he had just two goals
in 19 games played.
6-foot-2, 235 pound Ovechkin has tremendous speed, strength, and arguably the
best offensive skills the game has ever seen. However, there are some solid
defensive techniques that have prevented Ovechkin from using is complete
are ‘Gapping Up’ on him and this means that instead of defending puck carriers
at the blue line they are instead defending the red line. This technique in
combination with solid back checking as he comes out of the Capitals zone
prevents him from gathering top speed and gaining the middle of the ice where
his athleticism overwhelms any defenseman in the league. The Rangers have the
personnel and depth to make this happen in this series.
the Rangers for Game 1 and for the Series