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12/16/2012 1:01:00 PM
The New York Jets may be fighting for a playoff spot, but NFL betting fans preferred the Tennessee Titans in the early trading for Monday Night Football.
vs. Titans: Betting the Spread
The New York Jets may be fighting for a playoff spot, but NFL betting
fans preferred the Tennessee Titans in the early trading for Monday Night Football.
Jason’s record on NFL picks
for 2012, up to December 15 inclusive:
10-5 ML (+6.82 units)
There’s an old football betting adage that goes something like this:
Don’t put your money on a bad team to cover. That idea has some merit, but
“bad” is relative, and compared to the Titans (4-9 SU and ATS), the Jets (6-7
SU, 7-6 ATS) look like Super Bowl contenders.
Wait, let me check my Rolodex… Titans… Titans… ah yes, a football team
in Tennessee to which nobody outside of Tennessee pays any attention. This
small-market club is playing very poorly this season – even worse than that 4-9
record would suggest. According to the updated efficiency charts, the Titans
are No. 29 overall this year, and their performance stats add up to 2.3
Estimated Wins on the Forest Index.
That’s why fading Tennessee has been so profitable this year. Meanwhile,
the Jets are playing out their assorted crises in front of a national audience
that just can’t seem to get enough drama. The lamestream media obviously knows
what’s good for ratings, treating athletes/singers/everybody with either
absolute reverence or total disdain. C’mon, man.
Here are the cold numbers: The Jets are No. 24 in overall efficiency,
and they’ve played well enough to earn 5.8 Estimated Wins, pretty much in line
with their actual win-loss record. And as I’ve already pointed out in my
earlier pieces on Monday night’s matchup (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN), New York had an
incredibly difficult schedule until recently. Tennessee did not.
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We, the Sheeple
Given the iron grip the media has on the hearts, minds and wallets of
its audience, it’s no surprise that the betting public was on the Not-Jets when
the NFL odds opened. Tennessee was initially a pick ‘em at –125 juice, drawing
about 61 percent support according to our consensus numbers.
The market leveled off afterward with the Titans at –1 (–120), which,
again, is virtually the same price. Now the Titans are –2 at the standard –110
as I write this on Saturday night. Still not a big difference; however, the
fair price for moving from –2 to –1 would be 8.5 cents, so why pay more?
Our expanded consensus figures show a very slight edge toward the Jets
as far as money wagered is concerned, about 51-49. This would normally suggest
the sharps are leaning just a smidge toward New York, since the sharps have
deeper pockets and tend to make bigger bets. However, the action on this game
has been really light – only the Jacksonville-Miami matchup has pulled in less
money thus far. Small sample size warning is in effect.
So, I guess nobody’s ears perked up when Braylon Edwards found himself
back in New York on Tuesday. Edwards had a combined 88 catches and 11
touchdowns for the Jets in 2009 and 2010, then got waived by both the San
Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks before getting another shot at the Big
Apple. Does he have anything left in the tank? Is his hamstring still an issue?
We shall see, but for football betting purposes, having Edwards available adds
value to the Jets.
I still see no reason to support the Titans in this situation – other
than for entertainment purposes, of course. And I haven’t even talked about
their offensive line injuries, but that’s a story for when I make my final
picks for Monday night.
NFL Picks: Take the Jets +1 (+111) at betonline